Wells Fargo - TPC Potomac
Last week our coastal course specialist, Brice Garnett, was our only winner. It resulted in a -0.50 unit week for the golf as the other 3 golfers missed their finishing position. Overall, on the PGA Tour season which started for us at the WM Open in February, Bettors Brew is +20.45 units. Our NFL draft novelty bets were a bust, but we positioned them as recreational fun bets to just spice up the viewing experience.
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This week the Wells Fargo departs Quail Hollow in Charlotte, NC due to the President’s Cup in the fall and moves to TPC Potomac. It’s a brutal course. The best way to describe the course is a US Open type track.
TPC Potomac thumbnail:
Par 70 and 7160 yards
Very tight fairways and course plays firm & fast
Fast bent grass greens which are some of the smallest on Tour
Two lengthy par-5s
Eight Par 4 holes over 430 yards
The player profile we are seeking this week - players with elite Driving Accuracy and solid Strokes Gained Approach data. Three golfers are a course fit and have nice prices on the finishing positions market.
Chez Reavie Top 40 +240 (offered at both DraftKings and FanDuel)
Reavie ranks 8th on Tour in Driving Accuracy Percentage and 63rd in Strokes Gained Approach. He likes boring tracks that require precision off the tee and hitting greens. This course allows Reavie to play to his strengths and he comes at a nice price. After a WD at the Valero Texas Open and consecutive missed cuts at RBC Heritage & the Zurich Classic, respectively, he posted a T13 last week at the Mexico Open at Vidanta.
Ryan Armour Top 40 + 240 (DraftKings)
The pricing on Armour is all over the place. He is +175 at FanDuel so the market is starting to move on him. He ranks 1st in Driving Accuracy Percentage and is T70 in Strokes Gained Approach. When TPC Potomac was the host for the Quicken Loans National in the summer of 2018, Armour finished runner-up. He’s made 4 of his last 7 cuts, including two top 20s. Better jump on this price quickly before it moves.
Tyler Duncan Top 40 + 220 (DraftKings)
Duncan is another golfer with a large pricing spread. He is also +175 in the Top 40 market at FanDuel so getting him at +220 is a solid price point. He ranks 5th in Driving Accuracy Percentage, T70 in Strokes Gained Approach, and 42nd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. His current form is solid, making 5 of his last 7 cuts with all finishes inside the Top 35.
Early peek at some golfers to watch for the PGA Championship at Southern Hills CC in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Tony Finau 50/1 at FanDuel
Taylor Gooch 100/1 at DraftKings
Stewart Cink 270/1 at FanDuel
Finau looks to be rounding into form and his market price relative to his talent is very fair.
Gooch is one of the few players in the field with any course history at Southern Hills which hosted the 2009 U.S Amateur. Gooch was eliminated in the Round of 64. He’s part of the wave of young golfers taking command of the sport.
Cink is another course history angle with a 3rd place finish in the 2001 US Open and a T32 at the 2007 PGA Championship. Despite his age (48), he can still really move the ball averaging 302.7 yards in Driving Distance (64th). He is a saavy veteran who knows how to handle high pressure majors. Plus, at 270/1, you just have to take a piece of Cink here.
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