Week 5 College Football Moneyline Moonshots & recap of this week's plays
We recap all the plays for the week in college and NFL
In the last 2 weeks, we have been very solid with our Moneyline Moonshots. We have given out 12 plays where the underdog has been priced at +185 or higher. We have gone 6-6 with an ROI of +10.1 units. We are taking some big swings this week so please consider your bet sizing accordingly. All lines courtesy of DraftKings unless the game involves a team who might be restricted in certain jurisdictions.
Here are the ML Moonshots for Week 5:
Florida at Kentucky +260
Kentucky has not beaten the Gators in Lexington since 1986. This pick isn’t “they’re due,” but more of an opportunity for Stoops and the Cats to get a signature win. Kentucky has stacked up solid recruiting classes and has players drafted routinely into the NFL. The talent gap between these 2 teams isn’t as wide as in years past.
UConn +475 at Vandy
Ok, this one requires some serious intestinal fortitude to back the boys from Storrs, CT. However, the Huskies are building confidence and now have a signal caller who can move the sticks. UConn had Wyoming on the ropes last week and they see the Commodores as a very winnable game.
Western Kentucky +320 at Michigan State
Last week we cashed the Hilltoppers as a 9 point dog versus Indiana. We also tipped them as a ML Moonshot and the Hoosiers spoiled the double dip with a 33-31 win. The old saying “styles make fights” applies here. Western Kentucky throws it all over the yard while Sparty likes to ground and pound. If Western Kentucky can score 28 points, I think the Spartans could have a very hard time matching that total.
Ohio State at Rutgers +495*
*This line is courtesy of FanDuel since the Scarlet Knights are prohibited in New Jersey.
You may look at this pick and think I’ve been drinking moonshine. I get it. It seems impossible to visualize Rutgers beating the Buckeyes. That is why you are getting almost +500 on the dog here. Schiano is a great coach and I could argue he is the 2nd best coach in the Big Ten. He will have his team believing they can compete with Ohio State when they kick this one off on Saturday in New Brunswick.
Boston College +500 at Clemson
If the leadership at USC had a clue, they would hire BC head coach Jeff Hafley. The Eagles travel southbound to take on a wounded Tiger in Clemson, SC. Clemson is riddled with injuries and their dreams of a playoff bid is done. Will Clemson players eyeing the NFL be super motivated the remainder of the season? RB Shipley is out for the season and RB Dixon bounced into the transfer portal. The Tigers are lacking offensive punch and BC won’t fear the scene in Death Valley where the natives are restless.
Western Michigan at Buffalo +200
I was super impressed with the Bulls when they played Coastal Carolina 2 weeks ago falling 28-25. The Bulls held out several players in last week’s 35-34 win at ODU and should have a full squad on Saturday. Western Michigan is my highest power rated MAC team so I am taking a contrarian approach backing the Bulls here.
My philosophy on injuries
More than ever, I am convinced of the following on injuries, especially in the NFL with the 53 man roster. There are only 2 types of injuries that matter in regards to the betting line. Quarterbacks and cluster injuries are the only injuries you should pay attention to. The mainstream media loves to use injuries as a narrative and it is one of the laziest angles available. Unless the starting QB is out or there are cluster injuries at a specific position, then just ignore the cliche media narrative that the starting safety being out somehow impacts the line. It doesn’t.
Here is the recap of all the side and futures plays from college and NFL from earlier in the week with lines that were available at that time:
Louisiana Tech +19.5 at NC State - you can find the Bulldogs at +20.5 in most jurisdictions as of Thursday. If that move against us scares you off the pick, I wouldn’t blame you.
BYU at Utah State +8.5
Nevada +6.5 at Boise State
Tennessee Titans at New York Jets +7.5
Baltimore Ravens +1.5 at Denver Broncos
Adjusted win totals:
Seattle 9.5 wins Under -110
Lions 3.5 wins Over -110
Denver 10.5 wins Under +100
Best of luck this week and if you like the content here, please share this substack with your friends and followers.