Week 11 CFB/Week 10 NFL/Money Line Moonshots
The college season is winding down and the dreams of so many teams are getting crushed week after week. Coaches are also on the move and looking for their next gig which can lead to unfocused efforts. There are 3 Money Line Moonshots that stand out as nice betting opportunities this week.
UNC +205 at Pitt (Thursday night)
The season for the Heels has been a major dud. They are now in the spoiler role as they travel to Pitt on a short week. Pitt is in the drivers seat for an ACC title berth, but this game is virtually meaningless since the Panthers still need to beat Virginia down the stretch. Miami torched the Pitt defense with downfield passing and I think Howell will do the same. Take the Heels to win outright.
UCF +225 at SMU
Sonny Dykes, the head coach of SMU, is likely to be the next head coach of TCU. The Mustangs also have Cincinnati on deck and I am a firm believer in the look ahead spot. UCF still has a talented roster despite missing their signal caller Dillion Gabriel. Back the Golden Knights in Dallas in a bounce back spot after a dreadful performance last week versus Tulane.
Washington State +410 at Oregon
I am not a believer in the Ducks. They will lose at least one game down the stretch and maybe two. They have to hide their QB in the offensive scheme which always catches up to teams late in the season. This Cougar squad is fearless and feisty which they proved by going to Tempe and hammering the Sun Devils 2 weeks ago. Wazzu can take control of the Pac 12 North division with a win here (WSU is 40/1 to win Pac 12 which has nice value). Back the Cougars here as the Pac 12 says goodbye to a college football playoff berth.
Recap of NFL teaser & college side/total plays:
Ravens -1.5 & Raiders +8.5
The Ravens are the bully of the NFL. They historically hammer lesser teams and this week will be more of the same. The Dolphins are below average at QB and they have a terrible defense. Lamar is from South Florida and he likes to play well in front of family & friends. Ravens handle Miami and may lay claim to the AFC’s best team.
Raiders need a big bounce back after a stretch of bad news rarely seen in the history of the league. They no showed vs. the Giants and with a division opponent coming to Vegas, they will be focused. Las Vegas knows how to scheme the Chiefs, nearly sweeping KC last season. Take the home team up to 8.5 and they are live to win outright.
Georgia at Tennessee +20.5
Love the spot here for the Vols who are the fastest paced team in the country. Why is that important? I want the Georgia defense to face more than 70 plays and see how they handle that volume. The Dawgs only average 62 plays from scrimmage on defense which allows the best defense in the nation to stay fresh during the entire game. Take the home team to keep this game inside the number.
Notre Dame at Virginia +5.5
This one goes against the grain and the public sentiment for the Irish. The line looks fishy and a bit light. Virginia has a very explosive offense, but their defense is below average. So why pick the Hoos? Virginia is coming off a bye week so they should be healthy and this level of opponent will have them very focused. I like playing against Notre Dame on the road since they are a vastly different team away from South Bend. Take Virginia in a field goal game down to the wire.
NC State at Wake Forest Total 66.5 Under
Everyone saw Wake and UNC play a 58-55 game so the likelihood of bettors marching to the window to take the under here is small. I like being on the other side of the public play. The Wolfpack defense is very solid and they like to really grind out the running game on offense. Wake had their playoff dreams crushed last week so I am expecting a Demon Deacon team that could be a little flat on Saturday.
Best of luck this weekend with all your bets!