Valspar Championship & NCAA Tourney Nuggets
Last week, we had a solid Players Championship with Hideki Matsuyama (+137) and Doug Ghim (+350) getting home as Top 20 plays to eek out a small profit overall as Zalatoris, Hoge, McCarthy and Rai were misses.
This week, the Tour drives down Interstate 4 to the Valpsar Championship in Tampa.
The Scorecard for Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club:
Course Details:
Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club (Copperhead)
Par 71, 7,340 yards
Full field event with a traditional 36-hole cut
Five par-3s (each over 190 yards), four par-5s, nine par-4s
Tight course with elevation changes, tree-lined fairways, 6 water danger holes, over 70 bunkers, 12 dogleg holes so like last week, shot-shapers should fare well
10th most difficult course on the Tour
Every par 3 & par 4 hole plays over par
A boring course that has a US Open feel that rewards players who can hit fairways & greens, so similar to TPC Sawgrass, players use 3 woods and driving irons off the tee
Over half of the approach shots are 175+ yards
More of the same from last week with scrambling around the green being a premium
Greens: Poa Trivialis, 12.5 speed, firm, lots of tucked pins
Rough: Overseeded Ryegrass at around 3.5"
Brutal closing stretch with holes 16/17/18 playing a combined +0.55 over Par
Official Plays:
Doug Ghim Top 20 +188 (BetMGM)
Aaron Rai Top 20 +200 (BetMGM)
Ricky Castillo Top 40 +220 (FanDuel)
Greyson Sigg Top 40 +185 (FanDuel)
NCAA March Madness Nuggets
Look for first half under totals in games played early in afternoon sessions
Some of these games tip as early as 10:15am local time so venues will be half empty
Basketballs used by the NCAA are completely different than balls used by teams in their respective conferences all season
Shooting backgrounds in these NBA arenas is a big adjustment, especially for schools who play in smaller venues
Early game jitters
Shop around since prices will differ and that 1/2 point on a total can be massive
When trying to target upsets, look for teams with a slower tempo and teams who can force turnovers
Slower tempo teams can reduce possessions which equalizes the talent gap
Teams who can turnover their opponent can steal extra offensive possessions which can really put the favorite in an early deficit (McNeese St. forces 15.3 turnovers/game, 14th in the nation)
A few double digits seeds that can blow up a bracket:
Oakland University #14 seed in the South Region (KenPom Adj. Tempo of 232)
McNeese St. #12 seed in the Midwest Region (KenPom Adj. Tempo of 282)
Duquense #11 seed in the East Region (KenPom Adj. Tempo of 250)
Morehead St. #14 seed in the East Region (KenPom Adj. Tempo of 335)
Two 2nd round potential match-ups that could eliminate #1 seeds:
#1 North Carolina vs. #8 Mississippi St. in the West Region
Miss St. has an athletic team who can disrupt the primary scorer for UNC’s R.J.Davis, the ACC Player of the Year.
The Bulldogs are an exceptional rebounding team which allows them to gain extra offensive possessions
UNC has a fatal flaw that could get exposed - They don’t force their opponents to turn the ball over
Heels force 10.7 turnovers per game, 279th in the nation while averaging 5.8 steals, 256th in the nation
#1 Houston vs. #9 Texas A&M in the South Region
Texas A&M is a very physical team so the ability for Houston to bully their opponent in this one goes out the window
A&M is exceptional at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line which can really hamper Houston who isn’t a deep team
A&M averages 24.3 FT per game, which is 11th nationally
Houston’s fatal flaw is their inconsistent offense which can go for extended periods of time without scoring
Enjoy the Madness and best of luck with all your bets!