The Travelers @TPC River Highlands
Last week, we nailed the Denny McCarthy cap as he finished well inside the Top 40 and was contending on Sunday. Horschel was a disappointment with another poor start at the majors. The week was -.35 units leaving the tally for the season at +32.55 units.
This week the tour moves to Connecticut to TPC River Highlands and The Travelers. One of the most popular tour stops among the full time Tour players, this tournament has a very boom or bust quality. It can surrender low rounds (Furyk shot 58 here in 2016), but has diabolical rough that can really penalize errant drives.
Here is the course thumbnail:
Par 70, 6852 yards
4th shortest course on Tour
10 par-4s under 445
Tree-lined, doglegs, 9th widest fairways on Tour
Greens Poa/Bent (9th smallest)
Extremely penal Bluegrass/Fescue 4" rough
Here are the players who made this week’s card.
Chez Reavie Top 30 +320 (FanDuel)
Reavie has a very solid course history at TPC RIver Highlands including a T25 last year, T46 in 2020, and 1st in 2019. His driving accuracy stats are a big reason why he’s succeeded here. He ranks 4th on Tour in Driving Accuracy Percentage at 69.97% and he ranks 59th in SG Approach. If he can simply break even on SG putting, then Reavie will give himself a lot of birdie looks this week.
Hank Lebioda Top 30 +500 (FanDuel)
In 2021, Lebioda was in serious contention to take the trophy and finished T5 and carded a T41 in 2020. This course has a history of left handed winners (Lebioda is a lefty) with multiple wins by Bubba Watson (2018, 2015, 2010) and high finishes by lefties over the years (last year 3 lefties inside the Top 20). Ranking 89th in Driving Accuracy Percentage, Lebioda makes his bones with the putter. His SG putting is 51st on Tour.
Jim Herman Top 40 +500 (FanDuel)
This course is one of the few on Tour that Herman can realistically contend given his limited pop off the tee. He is deadly accurate with his driving as he ranks 6th in Driving Accuracy Percentage (69.36%) and that stat will need to carry him. His other key stats are just bad which is why he’s at a 5/1 price point to top 40. Last season, Herman finished T25 and prior seasons he was DNP in 2020, T71 in 2019, and DNP in 2018. In order to find value in the finishing positions market, you sometimes have to fish in murky waters.
The next big event is the Open Championship at St Andrew’s which we'll start to preview over the next few weeks.
Best of luck with all your bets!