The 150th Open Championship at The Old Course, St. Andrew's
Last week, we had a solid, profitable cap with Thomas Detry finishing well inside our Top 30 projection at the Scottish Open. His Top 10 finish resulted in a +1.8 unit week with Veerman missing the cut, but on the season Bettors Brew is a very respectable +35.55 units.
This week, the 150th Open Championship at The Old Course, is the venue for the world’s best to convene and compete for the Claret Jug. Weather is the biggest factor for the Open Championship and it impacts play more than any other major championship. Based on current forecasting, the conditions should be relatively calm with winds about 10-20 mph each day.
Here is the course thumbnail:
Par 72, 7,536 yards
Ocean Links
Two par-3s, Two par-5s, and 14 par-4 holes
Fairways are a mixture of fescue and bentgrass
Greens are a blend of 50% fescue, 25% bentgrass, 10% Poa annua and 15% native grasses
Greens average 13,600 square feet, the largest on Tour
Green speeds are around 10 on the stimpmeter
Given the benign conditions, what is the ideal player profile this week? The course is extremely firm and fast so long hitters will have multiple chances to drive Par 4s. Length is going to be a massive asset this week and the ability to putt well, but specifically lag putting will be key. Here are the players who made the card and as usual, we are sticking to our sweet spot of finishing position wagers, but we did sprinkle in some novelty bets.
Finishing Position Bets
Ryan Fox Top 20 +250 (DraftKings)
The New Zealander, who we teased last week as a play for the Open, enters the week in really solid form. He is built like a rugby player and can absolutely smash the golf ball. His game is ideal for this course and he could overpower this track with his distance off the tee. He’s played 69 rounds on links courses since 2015 and has a total strokes gained of +58.5 which averages to +0.85 per round. This style of golf is familiar to him and his recent results are impressive. The last 5 results for Fox are T47, 2nd, 3rd, T82, and 2nd. He ranks 10th on the DP World Tour in driving distance at 314.8 yards and has an impressive rank in average putts per round at 28.34, which is 17th on Tour. Fox cracked the Top 50 OWGR and currently ranks 48th and should be poised for a great week.
Keith Mitchell Top 30 +320 (FanDuel)
Mitchell checks a lot of the boxes this week with his driving and putting data. He is 5th on Tour in strokes gained off the tee at +.699 and 42nd in strokes gained putting at +.333. His distance off the tee is also solid ranking 21st at 309.8 yards. His current form is rock solid. He has made his last 6 cuts including a T36 at the Scottish Open, T6 at Travelers, T7 at the Canadian Open and T18 at the Memorial. Like Fox, Mitchell has the goods to really overpower what could be a very defenseless course this week. He is currently 53rd in the OWGR and has yet to enter the Top 50 in his career so with a solid week, he could finally crack the Top 50.
Novelty/Derivative Bets
Hole in One Prop:
The Old Course has two Par 3s so our immediate attention went to the Hole in One “Yes/No” prop bet. We like the “No.” The best price we could source is -155 on the “No” (DraftKings) which is a fair price given the number of opportunities with only two Par 3 holes. As always, shop around on prop bets like this.
Top English Player:
**Sam Horsfield 18/1 (DraftKings)
Horsfield is the latest young prodigy to emerge out of England and the 25 year old has really nice value in this market. He is a very solid putter, ranking 4th on the DP World Tour with 27.94 putts per round. Off the tee, he has plenty of pop averaging 302.4 yards, which ranks 77th on the DP World Tour. Yes, he has joined the LIV Tour, but a majority of his rounds this year are in Europe. He won the Soudal Open at Rinkven International GC in Belgium back in May, but he missed the cut at the last 2 majors. At 18/1 he is just too much value to pass up.
**Side note - If you don’t like the nationality market for Horsfield, he is +290 to Top 30 at FanDuel, which is a play we can endorse.
This should be a fun week and the all time major low round record of 62, held by Branden Grace, could be seriously challenged.