Sweet 16 & one PGA Tour tip
Our NCAA hoops projections did well last week. Chattanooga covered easily and should have won outright. The 0.25 unit win with Chattanooga (0.5 unit +7.5 “W”, but an “L” with the 0.25 unit on the Moneyline) resulted in a total +2.05 units for the week with Troy Merritt’s top 30 finish in Tampa earning a +1.8 unit win.
Last week, we had 6 bet against teams (Iowa, Richmond, VA Tech, Tennessee, Houston and Iowa State) and 4 of those teams were sent packing early. We really missed on Houston, who we thought were extremely over indexed by the Kenpom metrics, but the Cougars performed above expectations in both their wins. Likewise, the Cyclones took advantage of a great draw getting an athletic LSU team without a coach and the wildly overrated Wisconsin team who was a one man show with Johnny Davis.
The 3 bet on teams performed okay as New Mexico State was 2-0 ATS, UCLA was 1-1 ATS while San Diego State found a way to lose to Creighton in amazing fashion. We were very negative on the Mountain West all season and that league was cooked by Friday night. The Aztecs were the lone legit team in that league who lost a coin flip game which happens.
So on to the Sweet 16 with only one true Cinderella in St. Peter’s, a gritty, tough team from the MAAC. Love seeing the big brands in this section of the tournament.
The lines are so tight for these games, but two games stand out.
Michigan +5 vs Villanova
Wolverines assistant Phil Martelli knows this Villanova scheme and personnel as well as any coach in the tournament. The former St. Joe’s coach has the familiarity required to stymie the Wildcats. Michigan should be able to hang with Nova and perhaps steal a win in the last minute. Their size should cause problems for the Cats and this Michigan group is a confident bunch right now.
UCLA -140 ML vs. North Carolina
The Tar Heels have exceeded all expectations in the last 2 weeks with some super impressive wins over Duke, Marquette, and Baylor, respectively. The party ends in Philly this week at the hands of the UCLA Bruins. Mick Cronin’s bunch are a tough, hard nosed defensive team who made a very talented St. Mary’s squad look like a Division II school. The Bruins will dictate their slower tempo which always gives the Heels trouble going back to the Roy Williams era. When the Heels can’t run, they get very stagnate with their half court sets. The lack of post depth is a concern if Armando Bacot gets in early foul trouble. Back the Bruins who we think are worth a small future bet in the National title market at 15-1.
On to the PGA Tour….
We love watching the WCG Match play from Austin, TX every year. It is a great spectacle of golf. However, we just don’t bet it since the format leads to really goofy results.
That being said, we do have a PGA Tour event taking place in Punta Cana, DR and we have our eye on an island course specialist we tipped earlier this season for the Puerto Rico Open.
Rafael Campos Top 30 +440
The VCU product plays these opposite events staged in the Caribbean very well. The Puerto Rico native has a comfort on these courses and brings a very solid course history to the table this week. He posted a T2 in last season’s event at the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club and should play well this week. If you want to take him at +280 to Top 40, then you can certainly grab that bet instead to lower the risk.
Enjoy all the games this week and good luck with your bets!