RBC Canadian Open
Last week we managed a tiny profit with Aaron Wise landing well inside the Top 20 at +250 which offset the MCs by Woodland & Kitayama. On the season, this newsletter is a respectable +25.15 units on PGA Tour plays. This week, the Tour moves north of the border to Royal St. Georges Golf & CC for the RBC Canadian Open.
Here is the course thumbnail:
Par 70, 7014 yards, an old school track
Tree-lined, tight fairways
Rolling, hilly terrain, uneven lies, elevated greens/bunkers, blind shots
Bent greens (3rd smallest), very sloped and fast
2nd most bunkers on Tour
Very penal Bluegrass rough measuring 3.5"
The skills required to conquer this track are Driving Accuracy percentage, SG Approach, and SG putting. This course has not hosted this event since 2010 so a majority of the field is seeing this place for the first time.
Here are the players who made the card:
Brendon Todd Top 20 +270 (FanDuel)
Todd solidly checks 2 of the 3 boxes in the must have stats this week. He is 5th in Driving Accuracy Percentage at 69.63% and 6th in Strokes Gained putting. The one area that could be the bugaboo this week is his SG Approach stats. He’s 112th on Tour with -.012 Strokes gained. Now, if Todd can simply break even on SG Approach, his driving and putting can carry him.
Aaron Rai Top 20 +330 (Ceasars)
Rai enters in good form, making 7 of his last 8 cuts including 4 finishes at 29th or better. Like Brendon Todd, he checks 2 of the 3 key boxes in the statistics, ranking 26th in Driving Accuracy Percentage (66.04%) and 73rd in SG Approach. The one facet of his game that is an obvious weakness is his putting. He ranks 115th in SG Putting this season. With his ball striking precision and the small greens, Rai could compensate for his putting by hitting a ton of greens in regulation (he is 43rd on Tour in Greens in Regulation percentage).
Chris Kirk Top 20 +175 (Ceasars)
Kirk has been a very solid performer all season and plays well at the tight, shorter courses where he can lean on his ball striking. He ranks 43rd in Driving Accuracy Percentage (64.69%) and 55th in SG Approach, but like the other 2 players on the card, the putter is below average (126th in SG putting). If Kirk can just avoid losing strokes putting, then he should be a contender this week.
Next week, we get the 3rd major of the year with the US Open at the Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. No early leans or plays yet on the US Open, but this week’s Canadian Open set-up could be a harbinger for things to come in Brookline so curious to see who handles the high rough and tough conditions in Canada.
Good luck with all your bets this week!