NFL Week 7
Our Week 6 in the NFL was 1-1 with our Chargers side basically DOA by the end of the 1st quarter. Our Bucs Vikings teaser came thru to take our season record to 9-5 (64.2%).
The Week 7 card in the NFL is rough this week. Not much to really attack on sides with big spreads and a lot of teams on a bye.
The only play I like right now is a 2 team 6 point teaser. I may add another play to the Thursday newsletter with some cluster injuries I’m watching.
Eagles +9/Colts +9.5
Eagles venture into Vegas and hopefully avoid the Vegas flu. Raiders got a bounce back win after the Gruden mess. Is that sustainable? Maybe, but I think the Eagles-Raiders game is a FG either way. Hurts can exploit the Raiders defense with his legs so “fly Eagles fly.”
The Colts are slowly turning their season around as they head to the Bay area. The Niners have no home field advantage with a stadium that is usually 3/4 full and isolated from the city. Trey Lance is not 100% and I think the Colts defense can confuse the rookie and use their speed to contain his running. With T.Y. Hilton in the lineup, the Colts passing game has regained form. Take the Colts up to +9.5 and I think they can win outright.
Point Differential as a basic ratings tool
I love the simplicity of point differential in the NFL. Just look at the teams who lead in that stat and what do you know, it is a list of the best teams. Being able to gain margin on your opponent is a great measure of relative strength. It is such a dead simple data point, but a good barometer to use to identify the best NFL teams.
Here are the top 10 in point differential:
Bills + 105
Cardinals +85
Cowboys +59
Rams +52
Bucs +51
Ravens + 47
Bengals +37
Saints +36
Panthers +22
Broncos +16
You might say “wait a minute” the Broncos are not a top 10 team. I agree. The point differential does require you to look at the schedule strength as well. The Rams are a great example with high margin wins over the Bears and Giants with the Lions on deck. The Broncos feasted on the Giants, Jags, and Jets in the first 3 weeks of the season to build up a big margin. Since then, not so much.
2021 NFL Power Ratings
Updated 10.19.2021
Buffalo Bills 94.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 93.8
Dallas Cowboys 93.2
Arizona Cardinals 93.0
Baltimore Ravens 92.9
Kansas City Chiefs 92.8
Green Bay Packers 92.3
Los Angeles Chargers 92.1
Los Angeles Rams 92.0
New Orleans Saints 91.1
Cleveland Browns 90.5
San Francisco 49ers 90.4
Pittsburgh Steelers 90.2
Tennessee Titans 89.6
Minnesota Vikings 89.5
Cincinnati Bengals 89.2
Seattle Seahawks 88.6
Las Vegas Raiders 88.5
Carolina Panthers 88.3
New England Patriots 88.0
Denver Broncos 87.9
Philadelphia Eagles 87.6
Indianapolis Colts 87.4
Washington FT 87.3
Atlanta Falcons 86.6
Chicago Bears 86.5
Miami Dolphins 86.0
Detroit Lions 84.1
New York Jets 84.0
New York Giants 83.3
Jacksonville Jaguars 82.1
Houston Texans 79.0