NFL Week 4 plays, future market tips and updated Power Ratings
Great week for the BettorsBrew audience as we tipped 2 winners with the Falcons and Vikings winning outright as contrarian plays. The NFL betting market is the toughest market to beat so we move to Week 4 with a humble approach.
In betting, you need to be comfortable making uncomfortable bets. Your subconscious is a tough hurdle sometimes when you go to the window to bet a bad team who has a good number. I like betting teams off a blowout loss since you get nice value on the number since the betting public wants no part of them. Last week the Dolphins, off a 35-0 loss covered versus the Raiders and arguably could have won outright. This week there are a couple of NFL games I like. My betting strength is college football so I tend to bet a small number of NFL games week to week.
Week 4 Plays
Tennessee Titans at New York Jets +7.5
It takes some serious cajones to walk to the window and say ‘give me the Jets.” New York is coming off an embarrassing loss to Denver 26-0, but come home to host the Titans. With one of the worst defensive units in the league, Tennessee is a welcome guest for the Jets to get right. The secondary is soft and there is very little pass rush to speak of. Perfect recipe for a rookie signal caller to flourish. Hold your nose and take the Jets.
Baltimore Ravens +1.5 at Denver Broncos
I’m not sold on Denver yet. They have feasted on the bottom feeders of the league with wins over the Giants (0-3), the Jags (0-3) and the Jets (0-3). I’m going against the considerable home field advantage of the Broncos in the highest elevation venue in the league, but I get the better team. I have to trust my power ratings and my ratings say the wrong team is favored here.
Future Markets
There are a few future market moves that caught my eye that I believe are worth considering for your long term betting portfolio. DraftKings does a great job posting in season win totals for the NFL and I see three spots that have positive EV.
Seattle 9.5 wins Under -110
It is very very hard to bet against Russell Wilson given the priors for the Seahawks. They are a bankable 10 win team over Wilson’s career with only one season (9-7 in 2017) with under 10 wins. This is more of a bet against the Seattle defense which is bad. They face Stafford and Murray 2 times along with Aaron Rodgers so those are 5 very tough games for that Seahawk D. Feels like Seattle ends up 9-8 or 8-9.
Lions 3.5 wins Over -110
I was extremely impressed with the Lions on Sunday as they took the Ravens to the brink. It took a 4th and 19 conversion and a record 66 yard FG to beat them. The Lions should be confident the rest of the season despite being 0-3. This team plays really hard for first year head coach Dan Campbell and I see them winning 4 games down the stretch. They get home games versus the Bears, Bengals, and Eagles which are all winnable. Road tilts at Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Chicago are all games they can hold their own. Be bold and back the Honolulu Blue and Silver.
Denver 10.5 wins Under +100
This one is simple. If Denver wins 11 games you tip the cap to them. I will bet against it.
2021 NFL Power Ratings
Updated 9.28.2021
Kansas City Chiefs 95.0
Los Angeles Rams 94.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 94.0
Buffalo Bills 93.8
Cleveland Browns 93.5
Baltimore Ravens 93.0
Green Bay Packers 92.8
San Francisco 49ers 92.4
Los Angeles Chargers 92.0
Arizona Cardinals 91.5
New Orleans Saints 91.4
Dallas Cowboys 91.0
Las Vegas Raiders 90.8
Seattle Seahawks 90.7
Carolina Panthers 90.6
Denver Broncos 90.5
Miami Dolphins 90.4
New England Patriots 90.3
Minnesota Vikings 90.0
Pittsburgh Steelers 89.7
Tennessee Titans 89.6
Indianapolis Colts 89.0
Washington FT 88.7
Atlanta Falcons 87.6
Detroit Lions 87.5
Philadelphia Eagles 86.6
Cincinnati Bengals 86.5
Houston Texans 86.4
Chicago Bears 85.3
New York Jets 85.2
New York Giants 84.0
Jacksonville Jaguars 83.0