NFL Week 14 - Ugly Underdog
Last week, we backed the Broncos +9.5 and Denver somehow lost a game they controlled from the get-go, but we got the cover. The Ravens were short handed with Lamar going out in the 1st quarter, but Baltimore found a way to win 10-9.
We move to Week 14 and we’re venturing into some very ugly territory. This week there are only a few people hitting the betting window and saying “give me the Texans.”
Texans +17.5 at Cowboys (BetMGM)
This is a buy low spot with Houston who is the pariah of the NFL while the Cowboys are everyone’s darling after rolling the Colts 54-19. The Texans will have Davis Mills back under center which gives them a fighting chance. If Houston can get production from Dameon Pierce & timely catches by TE Brevin Jordan, Houston can score 14 points which should be enough to cover.
When things are really humming for Dallas and they start to get cocky, we love fading them at home. Dallas’ priority here is win the game and stay as healthy as possible. Houston has players who are trying to put good play on tape since they may not be on the team in 2023.
This play really boils down to price. 17.5 is simply too many points in an NFL game and when the bookie is handing out that candy, you gotta take it. The betting splits are fairly lopsided and we like being on the side getting very little support. This will be a painful game to watch, but enjoy the sweat on Sunday.
Best of luck with all your bets this weekend!