NFL Week 14 - playoff push & Bowl Season Update
When we get to this part of the season, it is usually very tricky to identify the teams who are mailing it in versus playing with purpose. Fortunately, there are only FOUR teams in the league who are eliminated from playoff contention. In theory, the remaining 28 teams should be giving max effort this week.
On the season, we are 12-9 (57.1%) after cashing the Rams/49ers teaser. The outcome of those two games did illustrate an interesting fact about the point spread in NFL games since 1978. 83% of the time the point spread doesn’t matter. Either the favorite wins and covers or the dog wins outright. When looking at dogs in the NFL, I always want to back teams I think can win outright. Just some food for thought when you place a bet on an underdog.
This week there are 3 games I like to put into teaser plays.
Chargers +10/Bengals +8
Bengals +8/Steelers +8
I love getting the home team on Thursday night games and it is a nice bonus that it is a divisional opponent. Chargers are 8-5 and poised to grab a playoff spot with a win. They would get the double benefit of sweeping the Chiefs and gaining ground on the gaggle of teams piled up at 7-6 or 6-7 in the AFC. The Chiefs are red hot so stepping in front of them this week takes guts. Back the Bolts here.
The Bengals are a dog in Denver which doesn’t really make sense. I think they should be a small road favorite. I’ll take the candy from the bookie and tease them up to +8. The Bengals and Broncos are playing a virtual playoff game here with the winner having a huge edge in the tie breaker for wild card berths. Cincy still has designs on an AFC North title with the other AFC North teams hobbled with key injuries. The division is there for the taking an Joe Burrow’s club will be laser focused this week.
The Steelers are a very odd team. As a favorite, I won’t touch them. As a dog, I’m all in. Tomlin historically does a great job getting his team dialed in when they are a dog and being a dog at home will be positioned as an insult to Steeler nation. The Titans without Henry don’t have the same mojo on offense and I foresee this game being a tough low scoring affair. I like getting the home team with more than a TD so back the Terrible Towels this week.
Bowl Season Update
I’m working on the Bowl release, but the player movement is still active so waiting on a few players to either declare for the NFL draft or play in the Bowl game. I will release the Bowl games in 2 parts with the early games in the first release and the remainder in the second newsletter. Stay tuned.
2021 NFL Power Ratings
Updated 12.14.2021
Green Bay Packers 94.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 93.8
Arizona Cardinals 93.2
New England Patriots 93.1
Kansas City Chiefs 92.9
Dallas Cowboys 92.5
Los Angles Rams 92.2
Buffalo Bills 91.4
Indianapolis Colts 91.1
Cincinnati Bengals 90.7
Los Angeles Chargers 90.6
San Francisco 49ers 90.4
Baltimore Ravens 89.6
Tennessee Titans 89.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 89.4
Minnesota Vikings 89.3
Cleveland Browns 88.7
Philadelphia Eagles 88.6
Denver Broncos 88.5
Las Vegas Raiders 87.4
WFT 87.3
New Orleans Saints 87.2
Carolina Panthers 86.9
Seattle Seahawks 86.8
Atlanta Falcons 85.9
Chicago Bears 85.5
Miami Dolphins 84.7
New York Giants 83.5
New York Jets 81.5
Houston Texans 80.9
Jacksonville Jaguars 80.4
Detroit Lions 80.2