NFL Week 1, College Football Week 2 and NFL playoff predictions
This week’s thumbnail:
Quick recap of last week’s cfb bets
CFB week 2 plays
NFL week 1 plays
Additional NFL win total
NFL season predictions - playoff teams and SB pick
Recap of prior futures in CFB & NFL
Last week (1-1 and -.40 units) was the double edged sword of the over hyped teams. We were all over the fade of the NC State hype train and the tough road environment in Greenville. The Pirates could have won the game outright which is a trait of an underdog you want. If you bet an underdog, you should feel that team could win the game outright. So many times when the dog covers, they win outright. The dog winning outright and covering happens in the NFL more than you’d think.
Utah was the darling of the men wearing make-up on TV talking sports. Our instinct on those teams is fade, fade, fade, but we also have head coach Kyle Whittingham ranked as a Top 5 coach in college football. It was a coin-flip game and the Gators had the better QB and emerged with a win. On to week 2…
Week 2 College Football plays
Wake Forest at Vanderbilt +13.5 (DraftKings/BetRivers/Hard Rock/Unibet/Barstool)
This line has over adjusted on the Sam Hartman news. Wake is a different team with Hartman calling the signals, but this will be his first game with live bullets and limited fall camp. The Deacs have a prolific offense and should score plenty of points, but Vandy gives their players scholarships too.
Vandy’s QB Mike Wright is as athletic as any QB in the Power 5. He is a massive challenge for any defense. With a total in the mid 60s, the betting market is anticipating a high scoring affair so the back door cover should be there for the Commodores. *If you are patient with this one, you could put 1/2 unit on +13.5 and wait for +14 to show closer to kickoff*
South Carolina +9 at Arkansas (BetRivers/Unibet/Barstool)
Arkansas is coming off an extremely physical game and their QB KJ Jefferson was battered by the Cincinnati defense. That was an emotional game for the Hogs and now a tricky conference foe comes to town.
South Carolina landed one of the better QBs in the transfer portal this summer in Spencer Rattler. With a legit signal caller this season, head coach Shane Beamer and the Gamecocks can compete with fellow SEC teams like Arkansas.
In last week’s game vs. Cincinnati, the Bearcats had a lot of opportunities int he passing game that Ben Bryant simply missed. This week, Rattler won’t miss on those downfield throws.
The Gamecocks have a elite special teams unit and winning in the margins is something Beamer Ball 2.0 relies on. Take the 9 points (this line has moved from +11 in full disclosure) the bookie is offering and enjoy a good sweat on Saturday.
Honorable mention plays that were left on the cutting room floor in editing:
Baylor +4 at BYU (PointsBet)
Arizona +11.5 vs. Miss St. (FanDuel)
NFL Week 1 play & additional win total
Chiefs at Cardinals +6 (DraftKings/BetMGM and widely available across the market)
Week 1 in the NFL is always a massive leap of faith since the preseason is barely predictive. The handicap here is taking advantage of an over correction on the line move with the JJ Watt injury and WR Rondale Moore being questionable.
The Cardinals have improved in the first 4 games under Kliff Kingsbury - 2019 (0-3-1); 2020 (2-2); 2021 (4-0). However, Andy Reid is really tough in the first 4. Here are Kansas City’s records in the first 4 games since 2016:
2016: 2-2
2017: 4-0
2018: 4-0
2019: 4-0
2020: 4-0
2021: 2-2
So why back the underdog here versus Mahomes and Reid who are 20-4 in the first 4 since 2016? The price on the home team (+6) and the tricky scheme Kingsbury rolls out early with formations and a very elusive QB are reasons to back the Cards. With the passing game they employ, the Cardinals will keep firing even down 10-13 points late so a back door cover is in play. Mahomes can get reckless with the football so the Cardinals defense needs to capitalize on the intercept-able throws. Back the home team here.
One more NFL win total:
Las Vegas Raiders 8.5 wins Under +120 (WynnBet)
A first year head coach, brutal AFC West, and a schedule with a lot of top opposing QBs are the 3 biggest reasons to fade the Raiders in 2022. The price of +120 is also a nice value. If you look at the QBs Las Vegas faces this season, you can see why 8-9 is feasible. The number in parentheses is the 2021 QBR final ranking. Derek Carr was 14th in 2021 for context.
Patrick Mahomes 2x (5)
Russell Wilson 2x (10)
Justin Herbert 2x (3)
vs. Kyler Murray (7)
at Ryan Taneyhill (8)
at Jameis Winston (injured, didn’t qualify)
vs. Matt Ryan (21) - much better supporting cast w/ Colts in 2022
at Matt Stafford (4)
vs. Mac Jones (16)
vs. Trey Lance (n/a)/Jimmy G (13)
Only 3 games are “breathers,” but 2 of those have hurdles. Home vs. the Texans and Davis Mills is favorable. However, at Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence is a cross country travel and is a 1pm kick on 11/6 which still could be high humidity. The late season cross country trip to Pittsburgh on 12/24 could be very cold and the Steelers defense is legit.
This is a contrarian play that is psychologically difficult to bet, but worth a bet given price & the schedule.
2022 NFL Season Predictions - Playoff teams and SB
NFC:
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Bucs
NFC West: 49ers
Wild Cards: Rams, Vikings, Saints
AFC:
AFC East: Bills
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Titans
AFC West: Broncos
Wild Cards: Chiefs, Chargers, Colts
Super Bowl: 49ers vs. Broncos
Champion: 49ers
Recap of College Football win totals from August 10th release and last week’s Aug. 31st newsletter, including our Heisman long shots (all prices are at time of publication on 8/10 and 8/31, respectively):
Virginia 7.5 wins Under -160 (FanDuel)
Kansas 2.5 wins Over -135 (DraftKings)
Arkansas 7.5 wins Under -150 (DraftKings)
Colorado 3.5 wins Under -170 (FanDuel)
Hawaii** 4.5 wins Under -145 (FanDuel) **Hawaii plays 13 regular season games
Nevada 4.5 wins Under +105 (DraftKings)
Auburn 6.5 wins Under -160 (BetMGM) - in Aug. 31 newsletter
South Florida 4.5 wins Under -130 (FanDuel) - Aug. 31 newsletter
Cameron Ward QB Washington State 150/1 (FanDuel) - Aug. 31st newsletter
Will Rogers QB Mississippi State 80/1 (FanDuel/Ceasars) - Aug. 31st newsletter
Recap of NFL win totals from last week:
New York Giants 7.5 wins Under -145 (FanDuel)
Chicago Bears 6 wins Under -115 (Ceasars)