NFL 2024 Predictions & Our Week 1 play
The 2024 NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of the 2023 AFC title game. We’ll present our predictions for the season with division, wild card, conference and Super Bowl winners. Last week we unloaded the bag with all our future plays with some numbers still available in the market. Here are our 2024 NFL Season predictions and our Week 1 play using a betting angle with good ATS history.
AFC
AFC Division Winners
AFC East Winner - Buffalo Bills
The Bills have been written off by most of the media, but they still have QB Josh Allen and a massive home field advantage in November and December
Losing LB Matt Milano, the QB of their defense as the green dot communications hub, could be a reason why they don’t win the East
Skill groups for the Bills need to meet expectations for Buffalo to capture the East
AFC North Winner - Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals get the benefit of a last place schedule that allows them to find their form early
QB Joe Burrow’s hand/thumb injury from last season is the biggest question mark that will determine their success in 2024
Lou Anarumo is one of the best DC’s in the league who can help them steal a win or two this season
AFC South Winner - Indianapolis Colts
Head coach Shane Steichen is a top 3 play caller in the NFL and his 2nd year QB Anthony Richardson will need to play in at least 14 games after missing most of 2023
Colts added key pieces on defense, O-line and in the skill groups in the draft and off-season
Colts were a play away from winning the Division in 2023, so the net gain from their roster moves could be the bump they need to capture the South title
AFC West Winner - Kansas City Chiefs
The rest of this division is in full re-build mode and the Chiefs are the odds on favorite to win the West for a reason
Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes could be the 2nd best coach-QB combo in NFL history when their partnership concludes in the future
Chiefs have back-filled an aging roster with young talent on both sides of the ball and their 2024 success will hinge on that talent developing quickly
AFC Wild Cards
Baltimore Ravens
Can new DC Zach Orr, a first-time coordinator & play caller, fill the big shoes of former DC Mike McDonald (Seattle HC)?
Does RB Derrick Henry have enough gas in the tank to allow the Ravens to re-vamp their running attack to compliment QB Lamar Jackson?
New York Jets
Is this the year the Jets break the 11 year playoff drought?
If the O-line can stay healthy, this team should win 10 games with QB Aaron Rodgers upright and healthy
The Jets defense simply has to meet expectations which keeps them in every game on the schedule
Denver Broncos
By week 5, this selection could look brilliant or colossally stupid
Head coach Sean Payton has the signal caller in rookie Bo Nix to run his offense as designed
Can Denver re-capture one of the best home field advantages in the NFL?
NFC
NFC Division Winners
NFC East Winner - Philadelphia Eagles
If DC Vic Fangio can get the Eagles defense to maximize their prodigious talent, then Philly can challenge for the #1 seed in the NFC
Can OC Kellen Moore leverage all the weapons on offense to direct a balanced attack that isn’t as pass happy as his previous stints with the Cowboys & Chargers?
This season will be either an indictment of QB Jalen Hurts or total validation of his ability to lead this team to another successful playoff run
NFC North Winner - Detroit Lions
Lions play 14 of their 17 games indoors which is a massive edge for a team built for indoor football
Can DC Aaron Glenn get the Lions defense to simply be a top 16 stop unit in the league?
If the defense can be average or above average, then the Lions, with the best OC & O-line in the NFL, could make the 2024 season their Super Bowl moment
NFC South Winner - New Orleans Saints
The biggest question marks for the Saints - Can head coach Dennis Allen and QB Derek Carr prove to everyone they can win big games and ultimately the division?
Allen is an elite defensive coach and New Orleans could have the second best defense in the NFC behind only the 49ers
The first 8 weeks of the season will determine the Saints season with road games at Dallas, Kansas City, Atlanta and Los Angeles (Chargers)
NFC West Winner - San Francisco 49ers
Will the Super Bowl loser hangover and off-season drama derail the 49ers 2024 season?
With new DC Nick Sorenson, the 49ers defense will need to carry this team early as the off-season hold outs on offense find their form
49ers have as much internal pressure as any team in the league with a roster that will be very different in 2025
NFC Wild Cards
Los Angeles Rams
For head coach Sean McVay and QB Matt Stafford, 2024 might be their last chance for another deep playoff run
If the 49ers stumble early, then the Rams could certainly challenge for the AFC West title
Will the off season moves off-set the retirement of hall of fame DL Aaron Donald on the Rams defense?
Green Bay Packers
Will head coach Matt Lafleur take Special Teams play seriously in 2024 after losing their last 2 playoff games due to ST blunders?
The key for the Packers offense will be their running attack with newly acquired RB Josh Jacobs leading the charge and unlocking the play action passing attack led by QB Jordan Love
Can new DC Jeff Haftley get the Packers defense to simply be average to slightly above average?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The team in the NFC that nobody is talking about across the NFL media landscape
Does Tampa Bay’s aging defense have one more high level season left in the tank?
Head coach Todd Bowles, who can be painfully conservative at times, is still one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL, capable of stealing a win during the season
Conference Championship Games
AFC Championship Game
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
QB Patrick Mahomes breaks the hearts of Bills Mafia again as Chiefs reach a 3rd consecutive Super Bowl
NFC Championship Game
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
Head coach Dan Campbell and the Lions fulfill their destiny to make the franchises first Super Bowl
Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans, LA
Detroit Lions over Kansas City Chiefs
Super Bowl Champion: Detroit Lions
Lions deny Chiefs the historical Super Bowl three-peat as QB Jared Goff out-duels Patrick Mahomes to deliver a title to Detroit
Week 1 betting card
We say this every NFL season - tread lightly in week 1. Nobody knows a damn thing. We’re cautiously stepping to the window to back a home Division underdog.
Indianapolis Colts +2.5 -106 vs. Houston Texans (FanDuel has best price)
Ready to step in front of the Houston Texans hype train? We are.
Divisional home underdogs are 18-9-2 SU and 23-6 ATS (79.3%) in Week 1 since 2009 (Credit: VSiN analyst Steve Makinen)
With a healthy QB in Anthony Richardson, the Colts have the offensive punch to match the Texans and QB CJ Stroud
Ultimate chess match between Shane Steichen and DeMeco Ryans who’ll prove they’re two of the best young coaches in the league
We’re putting a 1/2 unit on +2.5 -106 and will sprinkle a 1/4 unit on the Moneyline +124