Moneyline Moonshots and Future Market Moves
The Heisman Trophy has become by default a quarterback award. So when scouring the Heisman odds, it my be counter intuitive to look at a running back. However, when the price is right, you can make a move.
TreVeyon Henderson of Ohio State is 40-1 and you may be able to find a better price if you shop around. In order to win the Heisman, you have to play on a team that will win at least 9 games and in most cases 10 games. Buckeyes should meet that criteria. Henderson should get a heavy work load as the season progresses and the weather in the Midwest makes the passing game more challenging.
DraftKings has a fascinating market for NFL futures with the last winless and last undefeated teams. I love the creativity of these new operators and the diverse betting menu they have created. Here are the odds on the last team to win their 1st game:
Lions +125
Jaguars +250
Jets +250
Colts +550
Giants +750
Falcons +750
Vikings +1400
Throw out the top 3 since they don’t offer much value. The play I would recommend is the Giants at +750. If they lose to the Falcons on Sunday, their next 6 games are challenging. At Saints, at Cowboys, vs. Rams, vs. Panthers, at Chiefs, and vs. Raiders.
The last undefeated team is just as fascinating. Here are the contenders:
49ers +275
Bucs +300
Rams +400
Panthers +600
Broncos +600
Cardinals +1000
Raiders +1000
Look, the NFL is so unpredictable week to week. When looking at the schedule, the 2 teams that present the best opportunity are the Panthers +600 and Cardinals +1000. Both have very challenging road games next week which is priced into the number. These markets are worth a small bet so don’t nuts here.
Last week we debuted Moneyline Moonshots in college football and we gave out 6 plays and 3 got home as winners - San Diego State +260, Fresno State +350, and Michigan State +185.
This week, we found 6 games that stood out as moneyline opportunities.
Cal +270 at Washington
Indiana at Western Kentucky +290
SMU +300 at TCU
Boise State at Utah State +280
Wisconsin vs Notre Dame +200 (Chicago, IL)
Clemson at NC State +320
Look, these teams could ALL lose. If this was easy, everybody would be cashing tickets. All these teams are at least a 6.5 point dog. Hence, the moonshot label for these long shot plays. Here is the rationale for each.
Cal has the best coach in the Pac 12 in Justin Wilcox. He is a defensive wizard and he can keep this one close in Seattle and gives the Bears a chance to steal it late.
Western Kentucky has a very aggressive offensive scheme that they imported from Houston Baptist. They throw it all over the yard and Bailey Zappe is a legit NFL prospect. I suggested this one as a side play of Western Kentucky +9 on Monday and I would sprinkle a little on the ML too.
SMU is led by transfer QB Tanner Mordecai who previously played at Oklahoma. The Mustangs have a lot of offensive firepower which you need to pull an upset on the road as a 9.5 point dog. SMU has players on their roster who were snubbed in recruiting by TCU so they will be looking to show the TCU staff they made a mistake. This is a local game for SMU so they will travel well for this one which should lessen the home field advantage of TCU.
I would argue that Blake Anderson of Utah State has done the best coaching job in the FBS the first 3 weeks of the season. The Aggies have played well and are hosting the conference bully in Boise State. The 10am kickoff should be an advantage for the home team.
Wisconsin-Notre Dame is one of the best match-ups of the weekend. Should be a 50/50 crowd at Solider Field in Chicago. Brian Kelly doesn’t get enough credit for the job he does in South Bend year after year. I like the Irish to pull the upset here since they have the more potent offense and the better coaching staff.
When Clemson comes to Raleigh on Saturday, there is the distinct possibility they pound the Wolfpack. Based on talent alone, the Tigers are the superior club. However, every year the Wolfpack seems to have a home game where they bring their A game in the underdog role. Given how listless the Clemson offense has been this season, I think NC State is live here for the outright win.