Market Moves & Moneyline Moonshots
Comeback Player of the Year market has a 50-1 option I really like
The market moves in the betting market every week reveal opportunity if you look close enough.
One market that caught my eye is the Comeback Player of the Year in the NFL. Last season, a team doctor nuked Tyrod Taylor’s season with a punctured lung during a pain injection procedure. Taylor looked really solid in week 1 vs. the Jaguars. With the bar being very very low for David Culley’s troops, I think Taylor has value in the CPOY market. The best number I’ve found is 50-1 at FanDuel.
My bets and opinions always lean heavily towards college football since the volume of teams bookies have to line and inconsistency of 18-22 year olds can lead to mis-pricing on games. While looking at this week’s card, I decided to offer up games with moneyline prices of at least +250 that I think are worth a small bet. Here are my Moneyline Moonshots for this week.
Boston College at Temple +500 - The Owls welcome the Eagles to Philly this week and BC is without signal caller Phil Jurkovic. Temple is a below average team, but with an implied probability of 16.7%, I believe they have at least a 20-25% chance to win outright which says value on the +500 ML price.
UAB at North Texas +400 - The Blazers are coming off a very physical beating at Georgia and now have to hop on a plane for Denton, Texas. The Mean Green absolutely have a puncher’s chance to knock off UAB who I think is overvalued in the market.
USC at Washington State +260 - How focused will the Trojans be this weekend in the lunar landscape of the Palouse? Pullman, WA is a tough place to play and how many USC players are already thinking about finding a new home in the transfer portal? USC could come out like world beaters and bury the Cougars this weekend, but I am willing to bet against it.
Some moneyline bets that failed to make the cut, but are worth a look if you are feeling frisky. Utah at San Diego State +260, Fresno State +350 at UCLA, and Michigan State +185 at Miami, FL (this game doesn’t qualify for my +250 floor, but I still wanted to mention it since I like Sparty this weekend).
Miscellaneous News and Notes:
If Mike Bohn at USC has a clue, he will call Lincoln Riley’s agent and simply ask him - What is the price? Here is the sales pitch for Riley. Why beat your head against the wall in the SEC over the next 10-15 years when you can absolutely dominate the west coast. The path to the playoff in the Pac 12 South is infinitely easier than the reconstituted 16 team SEC gauntlet. You have a recruiting base better than just about any program in the country and a track record of Heisman QBs and NFL starters. You are USC, act like it.
I know this substack is 99% football, but I can’t help throwing out two golf bets I really like. The Ryder Cup has been owned by the European side. Right now, I see Europe +175 in the market and +1200 on a tie. I would make a 1 unit bet on the Euros and a 1/2 unit bet on the tie. The US team has more talent, but I always favor the cohesion and brotherhood the European team displays in the Ryder Cup.
Hodophobia is the medical term for an extreme fear of traveling. The prevailing narrative in the college football media universe is the SEC never travels and ducks big match-ups. I looked at the data and I found a conference who has been embarrassing with their lack of travel into SEC country. In the last 10 years, the Big Ten has played a true road game at an SEC opponent twice. Both were games at Missouri, not exactly the elite program in the league. In 2017 Purdue played in Columbia and in 2014, the Indiana Hoosiers ventured into SEC country to challenge the Tigers. Don’t fall for the media narrative that the SEC doesn’t travel to Big Ten country. Six games at Big Ten opponents in the last 10 seasons including this weekend’s clash in Happy Valley between Auburn and Penn State.
As always, best of luck on your bets and if I see anything that catches my eye before the weekend, I will push more content.