March Madness Sweet 16
The tournament resumes tonight with a sensational slate of games. All the moaning and groaning from the mainstream media about the lack of upsets has birthed an incredible lineup of 8 Round of 16 games. Cinderella is great in the first round, but when we get deep in the bracket, the big brands draw the audience and the betting handle.
Here are the games we’re looking to bet tonight:
East Region, Newark, NJ 7:09pm ET
BYU (6) vs. Alabama (2)
Side: Bama -5.5 -102
Total: 175.5 -105
1st Half Total: 83.5 -120
Money line: Bama -220 consensus
Team Total Props: BYU 85.5 & Bama 90.5
Fire up all the betting apps you have and buckle up for a wild ride with this match-up. No pre-flop bets for this game, but the in-game live wagering opportunities should be plentiful with our recommendations below.
This contest should have the swings in margin similar to a fast paced NBA game. Whether you like the BYU Cougars or Roll Tide, there is a high likelihood better numbers will show for both sides. With a little bit of patience and discipline, bettors should be in position to set-up a nice middle with the sides and capture more favorable totals - first half and full game.
Both of these teams shoot a ton of threes and with the variance a high volume of shots from behind the arc can yield, the momentum swings in this game could be epic. Unless one team jumps out to a huge lead in the neighborhood of 17-5 before the 16:00 media timeout, stay patient with sides and the totals (1st H & full game). The strike price for sides for BYU should be around +10.5 and for Bama, a +4.5 or +5.5, with small wagers around a 1/4 unit.
With the totals, if there is a slow start and the 1st H live total dips below 78 before the 16:00 media timeout, then fire on the Over. The runway for the 1st H total is shorter than full game so it requires a little more urgency when trying to capture an in-game over. At the 12:00 media timeout, the full game total should be on your radar. If the number dips below 170 then bet the over for that full game total.
Why so much emphasis on the overs? Alabama is like an analytics cyborg who will continue to shoot threes or layups with a total disregard for the mid-range game unless the shot clock is about to expire. No matter how poorly or how well Bama is shooting from distance, they will keep firing. BYU has a similar approach with the drives into the paint with the primary objective of kicking out to three point shooters in the corners and wings. This game should have 50 combined three point attempts and if the combined made threes is over 18.5, then the final score should be around 94-88.
At the end of these games, they collect the uniforms and the season comes to a very abrupt end, so the fouling by the trailing team can be extensive. In the last 2 minutes, teams can combine for 20+ points, so be mindful of those late game scramble points if there is fear on the full game over.
West Region, San Francisco, CA 7:39pm ET
Maryland (4) vs. Florida (1)
Side: Maryland +6.5 -115
Total: 156.5 -110 (consensus)
1st H Total: 73.5 (consensus)
Money line: Florida -275
Team Props: Maryland 74.5 -105 & Florida 81.5 -118
Both of these teams illustrate the survive and advance mantra with nail biting wins in the second round to qualify for the regional rounds. Maryland head coach Kevin Willard is rumored to be the next coach at Villanova. He has been very vocal about his overall displeasure with how the Maryland athletic department has managed finances, specifically with his basketball program. The takeaway here is a very distracted coach who has one foot out the door.
Florida makes their money with a quick tempo, three pointers and elite rebounding to steal extra possessions. The Terps also like to keep the tempo quick and have one of the shortest rotations in the tournament. Maryland is excellent at avoiding foul trouble due to their lack of depth so opponents only attempt on average 15 FTs per game. This game will come down to a couple of factors - can Florida be efficient from 3 point range? Can Maryland match the Gators on the boards? If the Gators make more than 9 threes and win the rebounding battle, especially with offensive rebounding, then Florida wins going away.
The key players for each team who must play well are guard William Clayton, Jr. the do-it-all guard for Florida who is arguably a top 5 player in this tournament. For the Terps, center/forward Derrick Queen, the buzzer beating hero from the weekend, has to register a double-double in points & rebounds while staying out of foul trouble. Any foul trouble for Maryland is a major hazard.
Kevin Willard can keep his team out of foul trouble by employing the 2-3 match-up zone his father, Ralph Willard, made famous at Pitt. Kevin was on the Rick Pitino Louisville staff in the early 2000s and they used the Willard 2-3 match-up very successfully in the tournament since most teams don’t see that zone in the regular season. Why do we bring up the 2-3 match-up zone? It’s the key to the game in regards to the total. We’re going to grab the Under 156.5 -110 and sprinkle a 1/4 unit on the Maryland team total under 74.5 -105.
Enjoy what should be one of the best Sweet 16 rounds in the history of the tournament!