March Madness Second Round (Saturday)
Thursday delivered a couple of upsets with McNeese and Drake dispatching Clemson and Missouri, respectively. The early action on Friday saw 12 seed Colorado State end the Mountain West Conference’s infamous losing streak as double digit seeds. The Rams stopped a 24 game losing streak for that league when seeded 10 or lower.
The Saturday slate has a very chalky feel with the favorites looking rather formidable, especially against the double digit seeds that pulled upsets in Round 1. Drake and McNeese both had super emotional wins in round one and now need to come down from that high to face power conference foes. The fear for both of those teams is getting drilled in the second round.
This weekend reveals the elite coaches who can prep on a very short turnaround time versus an unfamiliar opponent. Coaches with a history of deep tournament runs should get an initial look from bettors. Also, the psychological issue for bettors is avoiding the trap of recency bias. We just saw Creighton, UCLA, McNeese, Drake and Gonzaga look super sharp in round one, but who has the chops to replicate that level in round 2?
Second Round - Saturday
BYU vs. Wisconsin 7:45 PM - Denver, Colorado
Side: BYU +1
Total: 155
Moneyline: BYU -105, Wisc. -115
Pick: BYU ML -105
This could be the most entertaining game of the entire weekend if you like teams that like to run and shoot. BYU is very comfortable in the elevation of Denver since it mimics their campus elevation in Provo. The BYU fans should dominate the arena giving it a home game feel for the Cougars.
This is a game that if you show us the final box score and we can look at one team stat line, it would be the three pointers made. In our write-up for BYU-VCU, we said the Rams would be in trouble if BYU made more than 8 threes. BYU converted 7 three pointers, but what we didn’t anticipate was the Cougars living at the foul line, going 19-28 to seal the win.
This game will be determined by the team who wins the three point arch, plain and simple. These two teams are mirror images of each other with style, pace of play and personnel. BYU’s best player is Richie Saunders who is a sharp shooter from the perimeter while Wisconsin will win or lose based on how John Tonje dominates the ball and the scoring for the Badgers.
The coaches are basically a draw here. Greg Gard for Wisconsin is looking for a return to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016-17. BYU’s Kevin Young is new to the college game following a successful NBA coaching stint. Young is inexperienced in the NCAAs, but he is a solid coach in the crunch time situations out of timeouts. BYU does a great job getting good looks in high leverage situations off set pieces.
The difference maker in this game for BYU will be Egor Demin, a 6’9” freshman from Russia who is the catalyst for their offensive sets. The 19 year old played for Real Madrid in Europe before enrolling at BYU so his international experience is valuable in this win or go home tourney.
We will grab BYU -105 and sit back and enjoy a high scoring affair on Saturday in the mile high city.
We’ll fire off another newsletter before the Sunday games. The game we’re targeting for Sunday is the total in the St. Mary’s-Alabama game which is Under 147.5 -108 at Draftkings. Hoping the number will get bet up to 148 and maybe 149. The Gaels will drag this game into the mud and simply won’t allow Bama to run. We’ll monitor the market and release a write-up on Saturday for that game and perhaps a second game if we get a couple of match-ups we’re hoping materialize on Sunday.
Enjoy the games and best of luck with your bets!!