March Madness Primer Part 2
Last week, we provided the National Championship formula utilizing the KenPom data along with trends that have been bankable for over 2 decades. This week, we’ll offer up more tools to add to your betting tool box when the tournament field and opening lines are released.
Here’s a list of the teams that meet the criteria we outlined last week:
Auburn
Duke
Houston
Just on the cusp of joining this list:
Arizona (only 2 wins over top 10% of RPI & 25th in KenPom Offense Rating, need to be 20th or better)
Wildcats can earn their third top 10% of RPI win vs. Kansas this weekend
Clemson (27th in KenPom Defense Rating, need to be 20th or better)
Iowa State (27th in KenPom Offense Rating, need to be 20th or better)
Tennessee (21st in KenPom Offense Rating, need to be 20th or better)
A trend breaker is lurking:
Florida is a team that could break the formula this year, trending towards a #1 seed in the West Region. They can’t meet the championship criteria since head coach Todd Golden doesn’t have the Sweet 16 coaching experience prior to the start of the 2025 tournament. However, they are 4th in KenPom Offense Rating and 10th in KenPom Defense Rating. The Gators have the best pair of road wins this season, at Auburn and at Alabama. They are a elite rebounding team which allows them extra possessions to knock in kill shot 3 pointers late in games. If the Gators are in San Antonio for the Final Four, it won’t be a surprise.
Here are a few macro concepts for the tournament to be aware of prior to betting sides/totals on games or futures, etc.
Free Throw Shooting Percentage
This is a team stat that gets magnified in the high pressure tournament games where it’s win or go home. There will be several games where the point spread and/or the outright winner will be decided by free throws late in games. Teams who shoot 76% or better from the free throw line should be highlighted when the bracket is released as potential bet-on teams.
Here are teams that are likely to make the field or bubble teams who shoot a high percentage from the FT line. They are listed with their current percentage and national ranking in parentheses (364 teams in Division 1).
Wisconsin 83.4% (1)
Gonzaga 80.3% (6)
Oklahoma 79.8% (7)
Michigan State 79.3% (9)
UConn 78.6% (15)
Duke 78.3% (19)
Arizona 78.1% (23)
Boise State 77.6% (26)
Texas Tech 77.1% (37)
Clemson 76.9% (39)
On the flip side, teams who shoot poorly from the free throw line (below 70%) should also be ear-marked as schools to potentially avoid. Poor free throw shooting can cost teams a cover or an outright victory. These are listed with the worst shooting teams in descending order with current percentage and national ranking.
San Diego State 67.3% (325)
New Mexico 69.2% (287)
BYU 69.3% (281)
Texas A&M 69.5% (273)
St. Mary’s 69.9% (257)
Mississippi State 69.9% (256)
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
Teams that are highly ranked in Offensive Rebounding Percentage are bet-on teams in the dance. High offensive rebounding percentage means more possessions and can make up for a cold shooting performance. Florida, who we touched on as a championship formula breaker, is an elite offensive rebounding team who couples that with quick kickouts to three point shooters. The Gators will grab a rebound and immediately find a shooter for a quick three when the opponent’s defense is scrambling and unstructured. They are one of the best teams at using the offensive rebound to convert into open three pointers. Teams with an offensive rebounding percentage of 35% or better are potential bet-on teams.
Texas A&M 40.2% (1)
St. Mary’s 39.3% (3)
Florida 36.8% (8)
Houston 36.5% (9)
VCU 36.1% (10)
Drake 36.0% (11)
St. John’s 35.8% (12)
Illinois 35.4% (15)
Arizona 35.4% (16)
KenPom Adjusted Tempo
This category is most applicable to the giant killers who are seeded 10 to 15 in the bracket. Teams that can slow down the pace of the game use that tactic as the great equalizer since it limits possessions and favors the team at a talent disadvantage. Slow tempo teams can be especially frustrating to teams who prefer to run and boost overall possessions. Here are teams with a KenPom Adjusted Tempo who can be those magical Cinderella teams who spring the upset in the first round.
Drake (364 AdjT) - the slowest team in the entire sport and projected by bracketmatrix.com as a #12 seed
McNeese (285 AdjT) - projected as a #12 seed
Boise State (265 AdjT) - projected as a #12 seed
Central Connecticut State (261 AdjT) - projected as a #15 seed
UC San Diego (252 AdjT) - projected as a #12 seed
San Diego State (251 AdjT) - projected as a #10 seed
What is actionable from the data presented above that translates into bets available in the market right now?
One market that sports books have offered for most of the season is “To Make the Final Four.” Now, these wagers come with some risk.
First, we don’t know the draw so the path for these teams could be favorable, but could be unfavorable. Second, injury to a key player can derail even the best teams in the tournament, so that’s always a hazard. Lastly, bettors always have the option of executing the money line rollover parlay which means betting the money line on Team A, then taking the full payout from your bet and placing that amount on Team A in their next game. It takes 4 and sometimes 5 wins (teams in the first four in Dayton) to reach the Final Four. The money line rollover parlay allows the bettor to assess the subsequent match-up and decide to keep rolling over the winnings or decide to take a profit by passing on the subsequent wager.
Here are a handful of teams, outside of the projected top 4 seed line (bracketmatrix.com), who have the chops to make a run to San Antonio for the Final Four:
VCU 66/1 (BetMGM)
The top team in the Atlantic 10, led by head coach Ryan Odom, is an elite defensive team with a roster of older, season players that’s as dangerous as any mid-major conference team in the field
Clemson 16/1 (DraftKings)
The Tigers made a Final 8 run last year and has a majority of those same pieces on the 2025 squad
Louisville 25/1 (BetMGM)
The Cardinals have flown under the radar all season in the much maligned ACC, but if they make the 2nd weekend of the tournament, look out
Oregon 35/1 (BetMGM)
Head coach Dana Altman is a top 5 tournament coach who has Final Four pedigree and a team with 8 Quad 1 victories this season, including wins over Alabama, Maryland, Texas A&M and Wisconsin
Next week, we’ll have some power conference future bets once those leagues finalize their brackets.
Enjoy the beginning of the March Madness this week as the regular season wraps up!