March Madness Primer

This weekend the calendar flips to March when college basketball takes center stage in the sports viewing landscape. The infamous March Madness bracket sub culture goes mainstream when everyone fills out their bracket in the hopes of winning the big pot of gold associated with their bracket pool. This installment of BB will offer a proven formula to identify the winner which has been accurate 21 of the last 22 tournaments with data that is also valid for 34 straight champions. This formula will be the jumping off point for the college basketball frenzy that will overtake American sports fans for the entire month of March.

The Formula

This formula is courtesy of Gill Alexander, the host of A Numbers Game on VSiN, the Vegas Stats and Information Network. VSiN is the network that pioneered sports betting as a primary content driver when it launched in 2017 just before sports betting became legalized in states outside of Nevada. Think of VSiN as the O.G. of sports betting on TV.

Here are the pillars of the formula along with any exceptions to each respective rule which really show how improbable of a run that a specific champion had 10+ years ago.

• More assists than turnovers

  • This applies to the last 34 national champions

• A head coach who enters the tournament with Sweet 16 head coaching experience

  • 32 of the last 34 champions fit the criteria with the notable exceptions being 2014 UConn (Kevin Ollie) and 2023 UConn (Dan Hurley)

• Three wins versus teams ranked in the top 10% of the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) which was a statistical tool the selection committee used for decades before crafting the current Net Rankings system

  • 28 of the last 29 champions met this standard with the only exception being 2014 UConn

• A top 75 overall Strength of Schedule

  • The last 29 champions fit this criteria

• A top 20 ranking in the KenPom Adjusted Offense metric

  • 21 of the last 22 champions fit this data point with the only exception being 2014 UConn

• A top 20 ranking in the KenPom Adjusted Defense metric

  • 21 of the last 22 champions met this standard with the only exception being 2021 Baylor

The teams as of February 27th, 2025 that meet these 6 qualifiers are:

• Auburn

• Duke

• Houston

There are a few teams who just missed one of the criteria and could qualify over the next few weeks since teams can improve their standing with wins and better defense & offense, etc:

• Arizona (only 2 wins vs. top 10% of RPI)

• Iowa State (23rd in KP Adj Off.)

• Michigan State (26th in KP Adj Off.)

• Tennessee (25th in KP Adj Off.)

Here are some teams who are rated in the current Top 25 of the KenPom rankings, as of February 27, 2025, who cannot meet the head coaching Sweet 16 experience prior to the start of the 2025 Tournament. This disqualifies them and they cannot overcome that missing data point:

• #4 Florida (Todd Golden)

• #7 Texas Tech (Grant McCasland)

• #11 Mizzou (Dennis Gates)

• #15 Kentucky (Mark Pope)

• #16 Maryland (Kevin Willard)

• #24 Louisville (Pat Kelsey)

So what does this criteria and data points reveal for bettors who are considering a future bet right now?

First, it reminds bettors that the upsets in the tourney happen on the first and second full days of competition.

Second, the winners of the national title are power conference schools. The last true mid major to win the national title was Loyola Chicago in 1963. Yes, 1990 UNLV won the title, but nobody really considered them a mid major program despite playing in a mid major conference that season.

Third, coaching experience is a major factor with 32 of the last 34 champs having a coach with Sweet 16 experience validates that notion.

Fourth, scoring and defense a a very high level is still the recipe to win 6 straight tournament games. Betting a national title future on a team like BYU at the current odds of 150/1 has the temporary euphoria of a scratch off lottery ticket. It’s highly unlikely to happen since the Cougars are 71st in KP Adj Defense, for example and have a head coach without Sweet 16 experience (Kevin Young).

Lastly, the Big Ten conference has a notable national title drought. That league hasn’t won the championship since 2000 (Michigan State). Before you put a bet down on a Big Ten team to win it all, just remember that fact.

Next week, we’ll offer up some future bets in the “to make the final four” market and the other prop markets books are offering for the big dance.

March is around the corner and enjoy the weekend of college basketball!