March Madness Opening Week
The madness has arrived and there is no shortage of over-the-top outrage by the sports media over selection and seeding since that type of content farms engagement. Fortunately, as bettors, we can simply focus on the betting market that ignores that noise to just evaluate these match-ups without paying attention to seed line or narratives. That being said, typically when there has been loud objection to a team or teams that were selected at-large, those teams have performed well. The bubble teams who land in the first four in Dayton have historically over performed relative to expectation. In 12 of the last 13 tournaments, a “first four” at-large team as won at least one game after winning their game in Dayton. In fact, 2 teams made a run all the way to the Final Four (VCU in 2011 and UCLA in 2021). Getting that tournament experience and perhaps overcoming the jitters of an elimination game has served those teams well.
We wanted to release a newsletter on Monday, but we had to wait for the betting lines to mature a bit to offer a true market number.
With such a dense menu of games and betting markets, it’s easy to fall into the trap of making too many bets. Be careful firing on too many games since these lines are very tight given the volume of data available now.
Here is the best bracket we could source that has TV tip times and venue information to help you with the sequence of games that can be printed to PDF.
The National Title Formula Recap
Here is a quick refresher of the national title formula we published 2 weeks ago:
This formula is courtesy of Gill Alexander, the host of A Numbers Game on VSiN, the Vegas Stats and Information Network.
Here are the pillars of the formula along with any exceptions to each respective rule which really show how improbable of a run that a specific champion had 10+ years ago.
More assists than turnovers
This applies to the last 34 national champions
A head coach who enters the tournament with Sweet 16 head coaching experience
32 of the last 34 champions fit the criteria with the notable exceptions being 2014 UConn (Kevin Ollie) and 2023 UConn (Dan Hurley)
Three wins versus teams ranked in the top 10% of the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) which was a statistical tool the selection committee used for decades before crafting the current Net Rankings system
28 of the last 29 champions met this standard with the only exception being 2014 UConn
A top 75 overall Strength of Schedule
The last 29 champions fit this criteria
A top 20 ranking in the KenPom Adjusted Offense metric
21 of the last 22 champions fit this data point with the only exception being 2014 UConn
A top 20 ranking in the KenPom Adjusted Defense metric
21 of the last 22 champions met this standard with the only exception being 2021 Baylor
Here are the teams who qualify as the tournament begins and keep in mind, teams can qualify into this criteria as the tournament moves forward.
Auburn
Duke
Houston
Iowa State
Tennessee
No surprise here that 3 of these teams are #1 seeds. A newcomer to the formula this week is Iowa State who has a major injury concern with Keshon Gilbert out for the entire tournament. Gilbert is an All-Big 12 third-team guard who averaged 13.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.7 steals and 3.2 turnovers per game. He made 29 appearances this season, including 28 starts.
Tennessee qualifies off a solid performance in the SEC tournament where they fell in the final to Florida. The takeaway from the Vols run in the conference tournament was the emergence of Jordan Gainey who scored 15 in their win over Auburn and 24 in the loss to Florida. He gives the Vols a second perimeter scorer who can compliment Chaz Lanier who has carried the scoring load at the two-guard slot. If the Vols get consistent scoring from Gainey and Lanier, they will be a very tough out in the bracket to compliment their elite defense (#3 in KenPom Adj. Defense).
Head coach Rick Barnes is an easy coach to criticize with the Vols always coming up just short of the Final Four with really talented teams in 2024 and in 2019. The Vols are 23/1 (FanDuel) to win the title and +390 (Draftkings) to win the Midwest Region which could be a nice value addition to your future portfolio.
First Four and First Round Betting Opportunities
The First Four match-ups that got our attention are Mount St. Mary’s vs. American & Texas-Xavier which are both on Wednesday. Texas is now catching +3 (-115) after opening pick ‘em. Our recommendation is betting this one in-game (only during media timeouts) to see how Texas plays the first 10 minutes of play. The Horns have the best player in the game with freshman Tre Johnson who is a dynamic scorer. Texas has been a total Jekyll and Hyde team all season, so let’s see what version of the Horns we get to open the game on Wednesday.
The early game is Mount St. Mary’s vs. American University and the play here is on the first half under which is currently a consensus 59.5 -115 in the market. Both teams play a very slow tempo and the nerves of being on the unfamiliar big stage should lead to a first half around 30-26.
Thursday has a couple of match-ups where the underdog is live to not only cover, but win the game outright.
McNeese (12) vs. Clemson (5) 3:15pm ET - Providence, Rhode Island
Side: McNeese +7.5 -110 (consensus line in the market)
Total: 134.5
Pick: McNeese +7.5 and a small bet on ML +275
In the 2024 tournament, McNeese was the most popular pick in the 5-12 games. The Cowboys proceeded to get boat raced by Gonzaga 86-65 and the game wasn’t even that close. This year, they face Clemson who made a run all the way to the Final 8 in the 2024 tourney and returned most of their team for the 2025 season. However, the Tigers enter the dance short-handed with the loss of 6th man Dillon Hunter to a broken hand.
Both teams are very solid defensively and like to play a slow tempo. Clemson is especially deliberate with their pace which is 327th in the KenPom Adj. Tempo metric. In a low total, slow tempo game, the 7.5 points the bookie is providing has increased value. In a low possession game, the underdog and inferior team can spring the upset with timely 3 pointers and forced turnovers.
Both head coaches are excellent with Will Wade of McNeese being courted by several power conference schools who are looking for a new head coach. Clemson’s Brad Brownell is great in the under dog role with wins over Duke and Kentucky this season as a dog, but we like fading him in this favorite spot with all the pressure to win.
Take McNeese +7.5 -110 and we’re not opposed to a small money line play with the best price being +275.
BYU (6) vs. VCU (11) 4:05pm ET - Denver, Colorado (5280 feet of elevation)
Side: VCU +3 -110 (Caesars)
Total: 146.5
Pick: VCU + 3 -110 and VCU ML +143
VCU is a team we touched on in our March Madness Primer from 2 weeks ago. The best way to describe VCU is think of them as the diet coke version of Houston. The Rams are an elite defensive team who smothered the teams in the A-10 all season. Their defensive ability mirrors the defense Houston unleashed on the Big 12 all season en route to the regular season and tournament title. BYU in their 2 games against Houston struggled tremendously to get uncontested shots, especially from 3 point range. BYU lost the regular season tilt 86-55 and were defeated 74-54 in the Big 12 semi-final.
The BYU Cougars use dribble penetration to collapse the defense and then kick out the ball to 3 point shooters in the corner and on the wings. When VCU breaks down the film from the Big 12 semi-final between Houston and BYU they will see the blueprint for how to defend BYU. VCU has NBA caliber length and quickness to close out on shooters and provide rim protection.
If BYU makes more than 8 three point FGs, then VCU could be in trouble. The variance of BYU is the one key element that cannot be predicted so if the Cougars are hot from distance, they will be tough to beat.
The selection here is VCU +3 and a 1/2 unit sprinkle on the money line +143. The travel and quick turn around for VCU is one of the toughest of any team in the field since they played Sunday and now play early on Thursday at elevation. The Rams played at New Mexico (5312 feet of elevation) early in the season, so they should have a good measure of how the players respond to playing at elevation. The BYU campus in Provo, UT has 5669 feet of elevation so the Cougars are accustomed to the rigors of playing in those conditions.
The plan is releasing another newsletter before the Saturday games tip with opportunities that arise when the second round game lines hit the market.
Enjoy the games tonight, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday before we reconvene before the Saturday second round!