March Madness: Final Four

Without question, the four best teams in the land have arrived in San Antonio, Texas for the 2025 Final Four. The Alamodome is the venue and ironically, the last time we had all four #1 seeds in the national semis, it was in…The Alamodome in 2008.

The national championship formula we detailed in prior newsletters was dead on with three of the 4 Final Four teams matching that criteria early in the process. Florida, who we touted as a formula breaker a few weeks ago, misses only 1 of the qualifiers which is a head coach who enters the tournament with Sweet 16 experience. Gators head coach Todd Golden, who is a rising star in college hoops, makes up for a lack of experience with a mastery of leveraging analytics to capture points in the margins. The Gators are talented, deep and very well coached.

The prevailing story line the media will feed us all week - can anyone beat this Duke juggernaut? The easy answer is no. At first glance, Houston seems to possess the ingredients to derail the Duke train that rolled through the tournament. The Cougars have length, physicality and the three point shooting to drag the Blue Devils into a low possession game.

The first semifinal is an SEC showdown of the two dominant teams in that league. Florida defeated Auburn 90-81 in Auburn’s Neville Arena as an 11 point underdog in early February. The Gators did this without starting wing Elijah Martin and fully controlled that game.

Here are the betting angles we’ve identified for the Final Four weekend:

National Semi-Final #1

Florida vs. Auburn, Alamodome San Antonio, TX 6:09pm ET

Side: Florida -2.5 -110 (consensus)

Total: 159.5 -110

First Half Total: O 76.5 -115/U 76.5 -115 (ESPNBet)

Money line: Florida -150

The biggest market move in this game has been the total which Fan Duel opened at 163.5 and has moved to 159.5 with BetMGM and Draftkings dealing -110 both ways (prices subject to change). These lines are super tight and there is very little edge here in this contest.

The only play we’d consider here is taking the 1st half Under 76.5 -115. Why? When final fours are staged in these football dome stadiums, the shooting environment is a tough adjustment for these teams. Combined with the jitters of the big stage for a majority of these players (Florida’s Elijah Martin played in the 2022 Final Four for Florida Atlantic) and that shooting background, the first half under on the total is a scary wager, but the only pre-flop bet we’d consider.

From an in-game betting standpoint, Florida has the horsepower to rally from early deficits. An opportunity to grab the Gators ML at +150 or better in-game would be a nice bet to have in pocket. With Auburn’s Johni Broome being a health question mark, seeing how he and Auburn play in the first 10 minutes of the game should be revealing. The Gators defense has the length and athleticism to bother Auburn three point shooters since their bigs don’t double the post and their guards don’t help off of shooters.

The caveat with recommending bets on these two semi-finals is this: We don’t have a great feel of high conviction for either game. Lines are tight so our bet sizing for pre-flop wagers in each game will be very small, around a 1/4 unit. We’ll save some powder for in-game wagers during the media TV timeouts.

National Semi-Final #2

Duke vs. Houston, Alamodome San Antonio, TX 8:49pm ET

Side: Duke -5.5 -105

Total: 136.5, Over -105 Under -115

First half total: O 63.5-115, U 63.5 -115 (BetMGM)

Money line: Duke -275

Stepping in front of Duke ATS has proven to be a bad idea during their tournament run. Betting on Houston +5.5 could feel really foolish if Duke is up 25-11 in the first half. The fear of betting against Duke is reasonable. However, Houston has revenge on their minds after losing to Duke in the Sweet 16 last season when their super star Jamal Shead (45th pick by the Toronto Raptors) was injured in that game.

So how can a bettor attack this game to find a bet worth making? The first half total is enticing with Duke having to adjust to the extreme length and physicality of Houston. How the game is officiated is a variable that just can’t be predicted. If the game is called tight, then Duke benefits since Houston likes a rough brand of basketball. If the refs let these teams play, then Houston gets a massive boost since they want this contest slow paced and ugly.

Like the first semi-final, a small bet on the first half Under 63.5 -115 would be a wager to consider. The path to that under would be a half with very few whistles, low possessions, and two teams struggling with the shooting environment. If either team gets into the bonus (7 fouls by their opponent) before the 8:00 media timeout, then that under bet could be in big trouble.

The in-game wager that’s worth a look is a cheaper Duke money line of -150 or better. Seeing how the Blue Devils adjust to the Houston defense will be a factor to focus on. Specifically, Houston’s blitz of the ball handler on pick and roll action (2 defenders attacking the ball) and how the Cougars double the post very aggressively and consistently. If Duke can counter punch those two defensive principles by Houston with spacing and timely shooting, then the Blue Devils could bury the Cougars. Doubling the post can lead to uncontested threes and that could cripple the Houston scheme.

Overall, these two games may not provide the most ideal betting opportunities, but from an entertainment perspective the four best teams should give viewers high level hoops.

Enjoy the games and we’ll have a Masters betting guide next week for the best major of the year!