Fed Ex Cup Playoffs & Early College Football Preview
The PGA Tour heads to Memphis this week to kickoff their playoff events which is a 3 tournament run where the field is cut from 125 to 70 to 30 for the Tour Championship. PGA Southwind is the course this week the pros will tackle and the course is tight with very penal rough and water all over the course. The course is a par-70, 7,243-yard with narrow zoysia fairways, brutal 2.5-inch Bermuda rough and Bermuda greens. With those specs for the course, the emphasis this week is ball strikers. Players who can keep the ball in the fairway and hit greens at a high percentage will do well.
Here are the players this week who made the card:
Cameron Young Top 20 +135 (DraftKings & Caesars)
Young could be the PGA Tour rookie of the year and enters the playoffs in really solid form. He has made 6 of his last 8 cuts and five of those finishes were T3, T2, T3, 2nd, and T2. The stat that really jumps off the page for Young is his SG off the Tee. He ranks 2nd on Tour in SG off the Tee gaining .968 strokes which is an absurdly good number. His putting is super solid ranking 43rd on Tour in SG putting. He ranks 20th in Approach between 50 and 125 yards, so if he continues to hit fairways, he’ll be close to the lead on the weekend.
Will Zalatoris Top 20 +120 (Caesars)
Arguably the top ball striker on Tour, Zalatoris enters the playoffs playing really solid golf and hungry for his first win. Some of his strokes gained stats are basically cartoonish. He is #1 in SG Approach (1.005), #2 in SG Tee to Green (1.754), and his SG Total is 1.718 which ranks 8th on Tour. There is so much attention paid to his shaky putting inside of 6 feet, but that really overshadows how spectacular he has played since joining the Tour. His current form is dialed in with 5 of 6 cuts made and those five finishes were T5, T2, T28, T20, and T21, respectively. He made some news dumping his caddie in the middle of the last tournament, but that isn’t something that scares us off of Willy Z this week.
Sam Burns Top 20 +150 (DraftKings)
Like Young and Zalatoris, Burns is one of the young stars on Tour who is poised to win a Fed Ex Cup and eventually a major in the next 2 to 3 years. His stats across the board are really solid and show why he is one of the rising stars on Tour. SG off the tee is his worst stat and he ranks 74th in SG off the tee which illustrates how solid his game is right now. Burns really makes his money on Approach and Putting. His SG Approach ranks 13th on Tour (.720) and SG putting is 10th (.576) which has led Burns to makes 6 of his lat 7 cuts including a win and a T4. Last season, Burns lost here in a playoff so this course has been a track he’s performed well on.
College Football Win Totals for Power 5 conferences + Mountain West
ACC
Virginia 7.5 wins Under -160 (FanDuel)
Key swing games: Sept. 10th at Illinois, Nov 5th vs. UNC, Nov. 12 vs. Pitt
This number is likely to move to 7 so you better grab this one while you can. The betting analysis here isn’t terribly data driven or wrapped in a narrative. This team lost a lot of production from last season and the notable offensive weapon returning is QB Brennan Armstrong who is a dynamic player. However, we really like fading teams with a first year coach and with holes to fill on the offensive line. If we had to boil this one down to one factor, it would be this - We just don’t think UVA can win 8 games and we dare them to do so.
Big 12
Kansas 2.5 wins Over -135 (DraftKings)
Key swing games: Sept. 10th at West Virginia, Sept. 24th vs Duke, Nov. 12th at Texas Tech
The Jayhawks have been a college football punchline for over a decade and they finally have a head coach with a pedigree of winning at every level of the sport. Lance Leipold has been successful at the Division III and Division I level as a head coach. He won 4 national titles at Wisconsin Whitewater including a three year run of 45-0. He transformed the Buffalo Bulls program from MAC cellar dweller to three bowl appearances including 2 bowl wins. Now, Kansas is a massive challenge, but the win over Texas last season was a clear signal the Jayhawks are starting to turn the corner. If they can win 2 of their 3 non-conference games, Kansas should be able to scratch out a Big 12 win to get over the 2.5 win hurdle.
SEC
Arkansas 7.5 wins Under -150 (DraftKings)
Key swing games: Sept. 3rd vs. Cincinnati, Nov. 19th vs. Ole Miss
The win total cap for this one isn’t terribly complex. The Hogs play an absolutely brutal schedule and could be arguably the toughest in the nation. The sequence of games is one of the key elements here with projecting them under their total. Here is the slate of games beginning on Sept. 24th:
9/24 vs. Texas A&M (at Arlington)
10/1 vs. Alabama
10/8 at Mississippi State
10/15 at BYU
10/22 Bye
10/29 at Auburn
It is hard to find a 5 game sequence more difficult than that. Not to mention the Hogs open the season hosting Cincinnati who has not lost a regular season game in over 2 years. Take the Hogs under and enjoy the sweat.
Pac 12
Colorado 3.5 wins Under -170 (FanDuel)
Key swing games: Oct. 1st at Arizona, Oct. 15th vs. Cal, Oct. 29th vs. Arizona State
This win total will not be on the board by the end of the week in all likelihood. If you take a look at the Buffs home schedule, you could make an argument they won’t win a single home game. That doesn’t sound good, unless you are on the under. Yes, -170 is heavy juice to pay, but we simply dare Karl Dorrell and the Buffs to win 4 games. We don’t think that is remotely possible.
Mountain West
This conference might have the most lopsided collection of “haves” and “have nots” this season. There are 2 teams who we are fading due to massive personnel loss.
Hawaii 4.5 wins Under -145 (FanDuel)**
**Hawaii plays 13 regular season games
Key swing games: Aug. 27th vs. Vandy, Sept. 3rd vs. Western Kentucky, Sept. 24th at New Mexico State
First year coach Timmy Chang has one of the toughest jobs in the country with the Hawaii program. This program was devastated with player departures into the transfer portal and the 2022 campaign will be a struggle on the island. The ability of Hawaii to beat us on this win total will largely be determined by Sept. 24th after their game at New Mexico State. If Hawaii is 2-3 after that game, then we will have a serious sweat since the Rainbow Warriors could win 2 conference games at home vs. Nevada and UNLV and would only need one road win to beat us. However, we are still confident in fading a first year coach with a severely depleted roster.
Nevada 4.5 wins Under +105 (DraftKings)
Key swing games: Aug. 27th at New Mexico State, Oct. 15th at Hawaii, Nov. 26th at UNLV
Like Hawaii, the Wolf Pack have lost a ton of talent from their 2021 squad including QB Carson Strong and WR Romeo Doubs who are both on NFL rosters currently. First year coach Ken Wilson has his hands full to get the Wolf Pack headed in a positive direction this season. This will be one of the most inexperienced teams in college football and we fell very confident they won’t get tot he 5 win mark. If the Wolf Pack can’t get a win in their opener, then getting to 5 wins will be a serious struggle since wins in the Mountain West will be hard to capture. Take the under with confidence on this one.