College Basketball Conference Tourney Week
This week might be the best wagering opportunity for college hoops all season. The sheer volume of games is almost overwhelming, but there are spots where bettors can find edges.
One popular play is betting Under on the 1st half totals in games played on a neutral court. Some leagues play conference tourney games on home courts, so double check the venue/location.
The reason behind the 1st half total derivative is the tendency for teams losing in the last 2 minutes of the 2nd half to foul to the bitter end. They collect the jerseys after these elimination games for teams who aren’t fortunate to get an at-large bid, so watch out for the inflated points at the end of games that impacts full game totals.
We will offer up some conference future bets this week with the caveat being this - save some powder for the NCAA tourney so don’t go crazy with bet sizing. For many of these bets, we’re looking at a 1/4 & 1/2 unit bet size.
ACC Tournament Futures
Duke is the overwhelming favorite with odds in the -350 range, but there is a team who could challenge the Blue Devils for the title.
Clemson +600 is the consensus line, but shop around as prices are subject to change
Tigers are an older team who has beaten Duke this season and their style of play is well suited for tournament play
Head coach Brad Brownell is masterful at game to game strategy and in-game tactics which helps his teams navigate elimination sequences
Atlantic 10 Tournament Futures
VCU is the best team in this league by margin, but the Rams have shown vulnerability away from home with 5 of their 6 losses coming at road/neutral venues.
This is likely a 1 bid league with VCU being the most realistic at-large candidate, so the teams in this conference will use this tournament as a total reset.
St. Joseph’s +800 (BetMGM)
The Hawks have the pieces to be a disruptive team in the A-10 bracket and can only make the NCAAs with the auto bid
Rasheer Fleming shoots over 41% from three point range so if he can string together games with hot shooting, the Hawks will be pesky
Big East Tournament Futures
The Big East conference saw a major power shift this season with St. John’s led by hall of fame coach Rick Pitino replacing two-time national champion UConn as the alpha in the league.
There are a few teams in this league who need wins in this bracket to improve their seed line in the NCAA tourney, so motivation should be high for the top teams.
UConn +400 (Draftkings)
The Huskies have under performed relative to expectations this season
The roster turnover with several players departing for the NBA finally caught up with UConn
The Huskies are starting to gel late in the season and bring momentum into the conference tourney with the hopes of avoiding the 8/9 seed line in the NCAA tournament
Big Ten Tournament Futures
Okay, this one is a long shot, but follow along here. This bet is priced accordingly for a reason and this team will need 5 wins in 5 days to cash.
Rutgers 200/1 (Draftkings)
The Scarlet Knights have two NBA lottery picks on their roster - Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper - so they have unquestionably the two best players in the conference
Rutgers was plagued by injury and illness during the regular season, so the Big Ten tournament is a second chance for this team to make the dance with the auto bid (they are not an at-large candidate)
Big 12 Tournament Futures
This conference is a bit of a mystery since we’re just not sure how good the league really is at the top outside of the Houston Cougars.
The Big 12 had such a mixed bag of non-conference and league results with Arizona, BYU, Iowa St and Texas Tech posting head scratching losses.
Arizona lost to WVU & Oklahoma in the Bahamas tourney, BYU lost at Providence, Texas Tech lost to St. Joeseph’s (neutral court), and Iowa State lost at below average Oklahoma St.
Kansas +1300 (Draftkings)
This is a buy low spot on the boom or bust Jayhawks who were the preseason #1 ranked team in the AP poll, yes, you read that correctly
Kansas has a significant crowd edge in Kansas City with Iowa State being right there as well with a very strong fan base
Kansas can use this tournament as the hard reset they need to build momentum and confidence for the NCAAs
Mountain West Tournament Futures
Take the top 5 teams in this league (Boise St., Colorado St., New Mexico, San Diego St., and Utah St.) put them in a hat and draw one and you’d have the eventual champion in hand.
That sums up the Mountain West Conference this season with no truly dominant team emerging.
This conference has been an auto fade for bettors for their entire existence in the NCAA Tournament with a legacy of putrid results (San Diego State in 2023 being the first and only team to reach in the Final 8 en route to the NCAA final).
Colorado State +350 (FanDuel & Draftkings)
The Rams are playing their best ball entering the tournament and might need the auto-bid to make the NCAAs
5th year senior Nique Clifford is emerging as a late 1st round pick in the June NBA draft
Clifford is the type of player who can carry a team
SEC Tournament Futures
The best conference from top to bottom in the history of college basketball will stage a rather curious tournament in Nashville, TN this week.
The biggest question mark is this - how much energy do the top teams (Alabama, Auburn, Florida & Tennessee) want to burn this week with their seeding for the NCAAs largely solidified?
Ole Miss +6500 (Draftkings)
Side note: Caesars had Ole Miss +8000 earlier in the week, but their app is under going maintenance, so we couldn’t validate their current pricing
Ole Miss head coach Chris Beard is an old school hard ass who isn’t about to mail in his team’s conference tournament performance
The Rebels are the most difficult team in the SEC to evaluate with the variance of their results being as volatile as the current US stock market climate
Beard excels on the quick turnaround from Game 1 to Game 2 the following day, so that is an edge he can leverage in a tournament setting
Enjoy the week of wall to wall hoops and we’ll serve up an NCAA newsletter as quickly as possible next week!