Charles Schwab Challenge - Colonial CC
Last week was a tough course with really tough conditions. Bettors Brew suffered the fate a lot of golfers experienced, going 0-3 on our tips which dropped us to +24.65 units on the 2022 calendar. But we re-group and move on to Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge at the Colonial Country Club.
This course caters to players with course history and the winner typically has played this track 6 times on average before closing the door with a win. Experienced players who can drive the ball accurately and dial in their approach shots fair well here. This course is similar to the RBC Heritage in Hilton Head. Driving will be key along with the ability to shape shots around the variety of dog legs the course presents.
Colonial CC, Fort Worth, Texas
Par 70, 7209 yards
Tight, tree-lined fairways - 27 yards wide (4th narrowest on Tour)
7th smallest greens on Tour
Played +0.32 over par the last 5 years, 11th toughest on Tour
Only one easy Par 5
Bermuda fairways, rough 3" & Bent greens
All the par-3s are over 190
We have focused on two players who fit a tough, tight track this week and one complete long shot flyer.
Kevin Na Top 20 +200 (Ceasars)
Kevin is a veteran player who relies on precision off the tee and on approach to make up for a lack of distance. This course fits him well and he is a former champion so the course history is strong. His putting is historically elite (despite his current SG putting stats) so if he can dial in his irons and hot greens, he’ll give himself a lot of birdie looks. Na ranks 29th in Driving Accuracy Percentage (65.97%) and 29th in Strokes Gained Approach. He wasn’t a captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup and with the President’s Cup on the horizon, Na can really make a push for that team with a strong finish to the PGA season.
Kevin Kisner Top 20 +320 (FanDuel)
Kisner is another golfer who simply cannot compete on the long courses on Tour so when he arrives at a track like Colonial, he knows he has a legit chance to compete. Like Na, Kisner is a former champion here who captured the title in 2017. He ranks 13th in Driving Accuracy Percentage (68.55%) and 19th in Strokes Gained Putting. His SG off the tee and SG approach are below average, but his stats get polluted by the long course he simply cannot handle. He thrives on courses like the Sony Open and TPC Sawgrass where he posted top 4 finishes this season.
Hayden Buckley Top 40 +490 (FanDuel)
This one is a total flyer on a player who has driving stats that really shine. Buckley is 19th in Driving Accuracy Percentage (68.02%), 13th is Strokes Gained off the Tee, and 30th in Greens in Regulation Percentage (69.01%) so he can hit these fairways and greens. He was T12 at the Sony Open which is a course with very similar traits of Colonial. Tight fairways and dog leg hole design. That is the good news. Here is the bad news. He’s missed 5 of his last 7 cuts, but did place 13th at the Corales Puntacana in that stretch. He is 180th in Strokes Gained Putting so if he can simply be average on the greens, then Buckley can land inside the top 40.
Best of luck this weekend with your bets and enjoy the Memorial Day holiday!