3M Open kicks off the Fed Ex Cup stretch run...
Last week’s tips were like Rory on the back 9 on Sunday - nothing really good to report. Our lone winner was no hole in one at -155, but Ryan Fox, Keith Mitchell and Sam Horsfield all earned a weekend off. The -2.35 unit week drops our ledger to +33.20 units on the season with the Fed Ex Cup playoffs on the horizon.
The next 3 weeks are pretty weak in terms of field strength and the odds board reflects that. This week the Tour heads to Minneapolis (pictured above) for the 3M Open. When Adam Hadwin is an outright winner at 20/1 odds, you see the obvious lack of depth in this week’s field. He plays this course very, very well and could win this week, but no real value there on Hadwin.
Here is the course thumbnail for the TPC Twin Cities course in Minneapolis, MN:
Par 71, 7431 yards
4 par 3s, 3 par 5s
7th longest course on Tour
Low scoring highly anticipated
12th widest fairways with 9 holes featuring water danger off the tee box
Bent fairways & greens (12 on the stimp)
Bluegrass/fescue rough 4”
Length has historically been vital here at TPC Twin Cities with Cam Champ and Matt Wolff capturing the title in 2019 and 2021, respectively. However, Michael Thompson, who is one of the shortest hitters on Tour (191st in Driving Distance), won here in 2020. Strokes gained off the tee is one of the key stats we’re focusing on to narrow the field and shape our card.
Brendan Steele Top 20 +180 (Draftkings)
Steele is currently ranked 4th in Strokes Gained off the Tee on the PGA Tour and enters this event in really solid form, making his last 8 consecutive cuts. He was 9th at the PGA Championship, 10th at the Memorial and 25th at the Travelers. If he can knock off some of the rust from a 3 week layoff, Steele can be a serious contender this week. With a Fed Ex ranking of 58th, he can inch closer to the Fed Ex Cup Top 30 with a solid run prior to the playoffs.
Troy Merritt Top 20 +275 (Caesars)
Merritt is a solid SG off the Tee performer and ranks 93rd on Tour in that category. Where he really earns his money is on the greens. He ranks 20th in SG putting and enters the week off a T30 at the Scottish Open 2 weeks ago. He’s made 5 of his last 7 cuts so his form is right there. Merritt fits more of the Michael Thompson mold of solid off the tee and allow the elite short game to really carry him. Currently 65th in the Fed Ex Cup standings, Merritt can add some margin to his playoff ranking this week.
Short card this week, but still money to be made. Best of luck with all your bets!