2024 NFL Week 2 & Survivor pool advice
Week 1 yielded a fortunate cover for us with the Colts just barely covering the +2.5 -106 in their 29-27 loss to the Texans. We will absolutely take a 1-0 start to the NFL season. Now we turn to week 2 where overreactions to week 1 results can present value on the underdogs. No team is as good as they looked in week 1 and no team is as bad as they looked in week 1.
The psychology of betting makes it very difficult to get the last thing you witnessed out of your subconscious. Recency bias is real and divorcing from that inherent bias is the hardest part of betting early in the NFL season. We head to majestic Denver, Colorado (Pictured above) for an AFC battle between the Steelers and Broncos.
Week 2 betting card
Steelers at Broncos +2.5 -102 (DraftKings)
Pittsburgh captured a physical, ugly 18-10 win in Atlanta while the Broncos looked over-matched in their 26-13 loss at the Seahawks. Taking the underdog here at elevation versus a team on the 2nd leg of back to back road games should slightly tilt the edge to Denver. The Steelers offense, led by QB Justin Fields, really struggled to sustain drives against a very average Falcons defense last week. Pittsburgh settled for six Chris Boswell FGs and revealed their path to victories this season - play stout defense and try to win a very low scoring contest.
The 5280 feet of elevation will play a role since most teams just aren’t in peak condition in week 2 given the lack of preseason games. Denver’s fans are extremely loud so the Denver rush will have a huge edge with the snap count. The Steelers will need to use a silent snap count which gives Denver edge rushers an extra half second to breakdown the Steelers shaky O-line. The Broncos rush must remain disciplined to not run past the QB and open running lanes for Fields who is extremely elusive.
For rookie QB Bo Nix and the Broncos offense, they will need head coach Sean Payton to scheme up some easy throws to allow Denver to play from in front. If the Broncos can get an early lead, it will apply more pressure to the Steelers offense and require them to get out of their running game that can control the game clock.
What are the positive indicators to look for during the 1st half if you are backing Denver? The Broncos passing game will need to set-up their run with Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and rookie Audric Estime ideally getting early touches to soften the Steelers D. If the Broncos can play CFL football (staying out of 3rd down and using 1st and 2nd down to move the sticks), then the Steelers blitz and various pressures can be muted. On the defensive side of the ball, Denver’s front must win on early downs to get Pittsburgh in obvious passing situations. Broncos DB Patrick Surtain will likely travel with Pittsburgh WR George Pickens who is the only explosive threat for the Steelers.
This will be a low possession game with the total crashing from an open of 40.5 to the current consensus market number of 36.5. Pittsburgh has historically played very low scoring games in the road favorite role since 2019. The Steelers have gone under the closing total in 10 of their last 12 games as a road favorite. The average total in those 12 games is 40.25 which closely corresponds to the opening number of 40.5 the books posted. The best number on Denver is +2.5 -102 at DraftKings. We’ll try to survive with another slightly discounted +2.5 again this week.
Survivor Pool Advice
If you are playing in an NFL Survivor pool, then you are ideally still alive after the Bengals cleaned out a large portion of most pools last week.
Survivor requires you to hit a substantial money line rollover parlay since pools sometimes can’t even get to week 9 or 10, for instance. The idea is to win the pool, not just survive week to week.
If you can stay away from the temptation to pick the biggest favorite, then with a little luck you can ultimately win in the end. This week, the Ravens will undoubtedly be chosen by around 30 to 35% of most pools so avoid them.
Here’s our recommendation - Jacksonville outplayed the Dolphins last week. A lethal combination of bad fumble luck and bone-headed coaching decisions by Doug Peterson gifted Miami a win. The Jags host Cleveland who really struggled against the Dallas defense last week. Jacksonville has a stout front 7 led by edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen. The heat and humidity of Florida is a formidable factor early in the season for road foes. Consider the Jags against a Browns team still searching for an identity and stability at quarterback.
Best of luck with all your bets!!