2024 College Football Week 4
Last week was solid with a split on the side plays and two of the three money line moonshots landing. Week 4 is already upon us and the college football season always seems to move so fast. This is a tricky card with the perception of teams still unclear with the disparate scheduling in college football. Some of the top teams have feasted on FCS and lower level FBS opponents which hasn’t revealed much in terms of valid data. Here’s the week 4 card along with our cotton candy segment of money line moonshots.
Week 4 Betting Card
JMU +10.5 -110 at North Carolina (consensus market number)
The perception of JMU in the betting market is low. The last time the Dukes were on the field, they barely escaped visiting FCS opponent Gardner-Webb in week 2. JMU has enjoyed 2 weeks to prepare for a Power 4 opponent which presents opportunity for a program still ascending in the Group of 5 cluster. First year head coach Bob Chesnee, who built a perennial FCS playoff team at Holy Cross, is one of the craftiest coaches in FBS. With 2 weeks to get into his play design lab, Chesnee is a very dangerous coach to face.
Meanwhile, the UNC Tarheels have been a mysterious team through their first 3 games. Head coach Mack Brown has a new QB at the helm after losing starting QB Max Johnson in the opener at Minnesota. He’s turned to Conner Harrell, a dual threat QB who is talented but still raw. Given the opponents UNC and JMU have faced, getting a gauge on these two programs is a challenge. Harrell has only completed 57% of his passes this season against Minnesota, Charlotte, and North Carolina Central, which has forced the Heels to focus on their stout running attack. RB Omarion Hampton could arguably be one of the top 3 running backs in college football and is the cornerstone of the UNC offense. There is a chance Hampton will be the first RB chosen in the 2025 NFL draft, so file that away when the NFL draft props hit the market next year.
The first quarter of this game will reveal a lot. If JMU can load the box defensively and dare Harrell to beat them with his arm, then the Dukes can stay inside the number. If the UNC run game gets rolling with Hampton, then JMU will need to really level up to go score for score with the Heels. JMU head coach Bob Chesnee is worth backing in this underdog role so take the 10.5 points and back the Dukes.
Vanderbilt +21 -110 at Mizzou (consensus market number)
Backing Vandy is always a scary proposition, especially on the road. Both of these teams have a bye week on the horizon. Fading the 3 TD favorite with the distraction of a bye week lurking is a nice situational spot. Despite Vandy’s big win over Virginia Tech in week 1, there’s a high likelihood that Mizzou won’t perceive the Commodores as a serious threat to come to Columbia, MO and beat them.
Last season, Mizzou defeated Vandy 38-21 in Nashville behind QB Brady Cook’s 4 TDs and 395 yards passing and WR Luther Burden III, who caught 11 passes for 140 yards at 2 TDs. Cook and Burden are the two of the three best offensive weapons for Mizzou again this season along side newcomer RB Nate Noel, who transferred in from App State. Vandy’s ability to cover this number will hinge on their ability to limit the targets for Burden III and reduce the overall possessions.
The story of Vanderbilt’s turnaround this season can be attributed to the arrival of assistant coach Jerry Kill and QB Diego Pavia, who were both outstanding at New Mexico State. Kill’s coaching experience was evident in week 1 against Virginia Tech, while Pavia has added a grit and running element that Vandy hasn’t had under center in the last decade. Vandy head coach Clark Lea has turned over the offense to Kill while focusing on his strength which is coordinating and directing the defense. Last week, we faded Vandy on the money line moonshot segment by backing Georgia State who defeated the Commodores 36-32 in Atlanta. It was the perfect spot for GA State to ambush an SEC opponent the week before the conference opener.
Lea should have no issues getting his team and more importantly his defense focused on Mizzou this week off a loss. Like the JMU-UNC cap, the first quarter will be telling. If Vandy can control possession with their offense to keep Burden and the Mizzou offense on the sidelines, then Vandy can stay inside the +21. If Vandy gets behind early, then it will be a very long day in Columbia for the visiting Commodores.
A couple of quick hitters on some additional underdogs we like this week:
Tulsa +3.5 -115 at Louisiana Tech (consensus market number)
Tulsa has been a feisty dog this season with an elite special teams unit who can flip a game with punt or kick returns
LA Tech emptied the tank last week trying to knock off ACC foe NC State, so how much do they have in the tank for an underwhelming opponent?
Buffalo +14 -110 at Northern Illinois (consensus market number)
This is a pure fade of Northern Illinois who has been the darling of college football for 2 weeks
NIU has a trip to NC State on deck and the chatter around the NIU program regarding a playoff berth is that “rat poison” that Nick Saban always referenced as a negative
Money Line Moonshots
Stanford +260 at Syracuse (BetMGM) - Friday Sept. 20th
Both teams off a bye and the Cardinal are a sneaky team who can punch above their weight class
Is Syracuse real or fugazi? This game will either validate or expose the Orange
Memphis at Navy +285 (FanDuel)
Navy can shorten the game and play from in front, a style of play that can frustrate superior teams
Memphis is sky high off the FSU upset and ripe to be picked off in Annapolis
Miami at South Florida +550 (FanDuel)
This one feels like a crazy town selection at first glance
Miami hosts Virginia Tech next Friday so could the Canes be slightly distracted?
This is USF’s Super Bowl and every player on the Bulls roster was passed over by Miami in recruiting so you’ll get max effort from the home team
USF head coach Alex Golesh is a masterful play designer and play caller who can keep the Canes defense off balance
Enjoy the week of college football and good luck on all your bets!!