2024 College Football Week 1 & All our Futures for NFL and College Football
College Football kicks off Week 1 with a solid schedule of games and some betting opportunities across the landscape of the sport. Based on Week 0 games, we can confidently say that nobody really has certainty on anything in this sport. The 2024 season should be a wild ride. Here are our Week 1 plays and the return of the Moneyline Moonshots, (as a reminder) which must be games with underdogs +200 as the threshold. No moonshots on dogs +140, for instance, since that just isn’t the high risk, high reward we’re seeking.
Side note - No PGA Tour bets this week. The FedEx Cup format for the Tour Championship is super janky so we’re just passing on the 30 man field event with the staggered starting scores.
Week 1 Betting Card
We gave out USC-LSU Under 64 -105 last week and that line has slightly moved against us to the consensus line of 64.5, but we still feel good about our position.
Florida Atlantic +14 -110 at Michigan State (BetMGM) *Friday August 30th*
Michigan State made a great hire with former Oregon State HC Jonathan Smith and he brought elite QB Aiden Chiles with him to East Lansing from Corvallis
The cupboard is bare and Smith needs a couple of recruiting cycles to re-stock the talent
FAU head coach Tom Herman is a very dangerous coach in the underdog role
Notre Dame Team Total Under 21.5 -113 at Texas A&M (FanDuel)
The Fighting Irish lack explosive play-makers and head coach Marcus Freeman is comfortable playing low scoring games where he can lean on his defense
Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko is an elite defensive mind who knows his former QB, Notre Dame signal caller Riley Leonard (Duke) and what defensive looks will fluster him
Eastern Kentucky +25.5 -110 at Miss. State (DraftKings)
When backing an FCS team, you can feel foolish very quickly, but the EKU Colonels are a playoff contending team at that level year after year
Miss State head coach Jeff Lebby is a sensational hire, but the talent/depth is thin in Starkville, MS so getting margin on opponents will be a big challenge this season
Moneyline Moonshots
North Dakota State ML +290 at Colorado (BetMGM)
This one is simply a styles make fights play
Will the NDSU physical style match-up with the speed of Colorado?
Boise State at Georgia Southern ML +400 (Caesars)
A home dog at +400 is too tempting to pass up, especially when the game time temps will be mid 90s and humid for a visiting team from an arid climate
Boise State is a very popular pick to make the CFP, so let’s see if they can handle expectations
UConn ML +980 at Maryland (FanDuel)
UConn head coach Jim Mora has slowly built UConn into a respectable program and this could be the game to validate his journey in Storrs, CT
Maryland is a mercurial team who can easily lay an egg when facing an inferior opponent
College Football Futures
Here is every future we have in pocket for College Football & NFL. The disclaimer here is this - we’re posting some numbers that aren’t currently available due to the market moving, but we still wanted to reveal these plays so subscribers could shop to either fade/follow/pass these plays. Always spend the extra 20 minutes to shop every book or “out” you have since prices can vary tremendously on futures. No malicious intent here to “past post” and give ourselves artificial credit for getting the best number. Just wanted to unload the bag on all the future plays we’ve accumulated over the summer months. It provides an overall macro view of the college and NFL landscape with teams we’re high and low on. Most of the bet sizes on these are 1/4 to 1/2 unit plays since we want to keep the bankroll liquid for in season plays, etc.
Win Totals (in alphabetical order)
Arizona Wildcats Under 8.5 wins -160 (DraftKings)
Arizona State Sun Devils Under 2.5 Big 12 conference wins -120 (DraftKings)
Cal Bears Under 6.5 wins -115 (DraftKings)
Clemson Tigers Under 9.5 wins -140 (ESPNBet)
Duke Blue Devils Under 6.5 wins -150 (Caesars)
Fresno State Bulldogs Under 8 wins +105 (BetMGM)
Fresno State Bulldogs Under 5.5 Mountain West conf. wins -120 (DraftKings)
Kentucky Wildcats Over 6.5 wins +120 (FanDuel)
Marshall Thundering Herd Under 6.5 wins -154 (FanDuel)
Michigan State Spartans Under 5.5 wins -150 (BetMGM)
Nebraska Cornhuskers Over 7.5 wins +110 (DraftKings)
North Texas Mean Green Under 5.5 wins +115 (DraftKings)
Oklahoma State Cowboys Over 7.5 wins -150 (DraftKings)
Purdue Boilermakers Under 4.5 wins -165 (BetMGM)
SMU Mustangs Under 8.5 wins -130 (BetMGM)**
South Alabama Jaguars Over 6.5 wins -145 (DraftKings)
Stanford Cardinal Over 3.5 wins +105 (DraftKings)
Temple Owls Under 2.5 wins -110 (DraftKings)
Troy Trojans Under 6.5 wins -140 (DraftKings)
UCLA Bruins Under 5.5 wins -105 (ESPNBet)
UCLA Bruins Under 3.5 Big Ten conference wins +125 (DraftKings)**
UCLA Bruins Fewest Big Ten wins (dead heat rules) 16/1 (BetMGM) **
Utah State Aggies Under 5.5 wins -130 (BetMGM)
**gave these out in the August 16th CFB Bulls/Bears newsletter
Team Prop Bets
Alabama Crimson Tide to win SEC 10/1 (Draftkings)*
*Used a profit boost to move odds from +850 to 10/1
East Carolina Pirates “Yes” to make College Football Playoff 100/1 (DraftKings)
Indiana to make Big Ten conference Title game 90/1 (DraftKings)
James Madison “Yes” to make College Football Playoff 31.5/1 (FanDuel)*
*Used a profit boost to move odds from 25/1
Nebraska Conhuskers “Yes” to make College Football Playoff 18/1 (ESPNBet)
NC State to win ACC 10/1 (DraftKings)
Oklahoma Sooners to win SEC 42/1 (FanDuel)
Oklahoma State to win Big 12 conference 12/1 (DraftKings)
San Diego State “Yes” to make College Football Playoff 100/1 (DraftKings)
UCF to win Big 12 conference 13/1 (FanDuel)
UTEP to make CUSA title game 14/1 (DraftKings)
UTEP to win CUSA 60/1 (DraftKings)
Virginia Tech to win ACC 14/1 (BetMGM)
Player Awards Props
Deion Burks (Oklahoma) to win Biletnikoff Award (Top WR) 35/1 (DraftKings)
Kyron Drones (Virginia Tech) to win Heisman Trophy 180/1 (FanDuel)
Grayson McCall (NC State) to win Heisman Trophy 150/1 (ESPN Bet)
Dylan Raiola (Nebraska) to win Heisman Trophy 100/1 (FanDuel)
Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) to win Biletnikoff Award (Top WR) 60/1 (DraftKings)
Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) to win Heisman Trophy 150/1 (FanDuel)
Week 1 is finally here and let’s enjoy the 5 day weekend of College Football!
Best of luck with ALL your bets!
NFL Futures
Win Totals
Chicago Bears Under 9 -105 (Caesars)
Houston Texans Under 9.5 -110 (DraftKings)
Tennessee Titans Under 6.5 -134 (FanDuel)
Denver Broncos Over 5.5 -135 (DraftKings)
Alt Win Totals & Win Prop Bets
Atlanta Falcons Under 3.5 wins 50/1 (ESPNBet)
Atlanta Falcons Under 4.5 wins 25/1 (ESPNBet)
Atlanta Falcons Under 5.5 wins 11/1 (ESPNBet)
Atlanta Falcons Under 6.5 wins 6/1 (ESPNBet)
Atlanta Falcons Under 7.5 wins +325 (ESPNBet)
Atlanta Falcons Fewest Wins 200/1 (BetMGM)
Las Vegas Raiders Under 4.5 wins +390 (FanDuel)
Las Vegas Raiders Under 5.5 wins +210 (FanDuel)
Las Vegas Raiders Fewest Wins 15/1 (BetMGM)
New Orleans Saints Most Regular Season Wins 100/1 (DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Steelers Under 4.5 wins +750 (ESPNBet)
Pittsburgh Steelers Under 5.5 wins +400 (ESPNBet)
Pittsburgh Steelers Under 6.5 wins +200 (ESPNBet)
Pittsburgh Steelers Worst Regular Season Record 40/1 (Caesars)
Conference & Division Prop Bets
Denver Broncos AFC #1 seed 150/1 (ESPNBet)
New Orleans Saints NFC #1 seed 80/1 (Caesars)
New Orleans Saints To win NFC South +550 (FanDuel)
Washington Commanders To win NFC 75/1 (Caesars)
Washington Commanders NFC #1 seed 80/1 (DraftKings)
Washington Commanders To Win NFC East 11/1 (FanDuel)
Player & Coach Prop Bets
Bo Nix Offensive Rookie of the Year 15/1 (Fanatics)
Dan Quinn NFL Coach of the Year 30/1 (Fanatics)
Kyler Murray Most Interceptions 40/1 (ESPNBet)