107th PGA Championship - Quail Hollow GC
The 107th PGA Championship heads to Charlotte, NC hosted by Quail Hollow Golf Club. Former PGA Tour player Hunter Mahan had the perfect description for Quail Hollow. He said the course is like a Kardashian. It’s modern and well manicured, but has no soul. Quail Hollow is similar to Torrey Pines in San Diego. The course is a collection of homogeneous holes that all start to look the same with a ton of length to defend distance.
That being said, Quail Hollow does simplify the player profile for the most likely winner - above average distance off the tee. With the recent wet weather in the Carolinas, this track will play long and should have limited roll out in the fairways.
Who does that favor? Well, look at the consensus top players in the world for an answer - Rory, Scottie, Bryson, Xander and Justin Thomas. Certainly, other players will contend this week, but the guys with 180+ mph ball speed off the tee should have a huge edge to lift the trophy.
Course Details
The 7626 yard, Par 71 track has about 5 truly scoreable holes - three Par 5s and two drive-able Par 4s. The other 13 holes historically average over par, so players must take advantage of those 5 scoring holes. If there is a signature stretch for this course, then the three finishing holes, dubbed the Green Mile, will be a major hurdle come Sunday afternoon.
Distance off the tee and course history are the two factors we’re weighting the most this week in our predictive model. Our betting card illustrates how important historical course success will be this week. Quick note on course history - the 2022 Wells Fargo wasn’t played at Quail Hollow that season.
Betting Card
Placement Markets
Corey Conners Top 20 (including ties) +180 (Draftkings) (1 unit bet size)
Conners has solid course history at Quail Hollow with his last 3 appearances here T43 (2021), T8 (2023) and T13 (2024). His ball striking is world class. Conners is 17th in SG off the tee and 17th in driving accuracy. He ranks 147th in driving distance which is the biggest negative, so that’s why he’s slotted in the placement market rather than the outright market.
Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 (including ties) +280 (Draftkings) (1 unit)
Similar to Conners, Fleetwood checks a lot of boxes except the distance off the tee. His course history is consistently solid with T13 (2024), T5 (2023) and T14 (2021) finishes on this track. Fleetwood ranks 48th in SG off the tee and really makes his money on approach, ranking 13th in SG approach. Distance, like Conners, is one of his few weaknesses. He ranks 132nd in Driving Distance, but offsets that with Driving accuracy, ranking 34th. Throw all those factors into your player profile stew and you get a top 10 player this week.
Xander Schauffele Top 10 (including ties) +188 (BetMGM) (1 unit)
The defending PGA Champion finally looks healthy after his off season rib surgery derailed the start of his 2025 calendar. Xander, like Rory McIlroy, has sensational course history here at Quail Hollow. T2 (2024), T2 (2023) and T14 (2021) speaks volumes to his comfort level at this course. Xander does everything well and his injury recovery has polluted some of his 2025 data, but his historical numbers are world class across the board. His driving distance is rounding into form, ranking 42nd on Tour. His approach game is elite, ranking 7th in SG approach which has translated into 4 straight top 20 finishes.
Make/Miss Cut Market
Jon Rahm To Miss the Cut +400 (ESPNBet) (.25 units)
This isn’t a data driven or sophisticated bet. Rahm hasn’t played well since securing a massive payment from LIV Golf. Until we see him excel at a major, then fading Rahm will be part of betting cards in majors moving forward.
He is a prolific talent and could make us look stupid this week. However, with a growing family and a ton of dough in the bank, how hungry is Rahm right now? Only time will tell.
Nationality Props
Rasmus Hojgaard Top Continental European Golfer +2000 (ESPNBet) (.25 units)
Hojgaard possesses insane power and his distance off the tee rivals Rory and Bryson. The Danish superstar averages 314.4 yards off the tee which ranks 8th on Tour. His Approach from over 200 yards is 7th on Tour with an average proximity of 46’10” to the hole. If he can tame his tendency to spray the ball a bit on drives, then Rasmus could be near the top of the board on the weekend.
Enjoy the PGA Championship this weekend and good luck with your bets!